Kiinanmeri lämpenee

[Skeptikko]

USA:n kenraali varoittaa: Kiinan hyökkäys Taiwaniin voi tapahtua pian
https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/usan-kenraali-varoittaa-kiinan-hyokkays-taiwaniin-voi-tapahtua-pian/

– Olen varma, että olemme kineettisessä konfliktissa Kiinaa vastaan viiden vuoden kuluessa, Naton entinen Euroopan-joukkojen komentaja, kenraaliluutnantti Ben Hodges sanoo Washington Examiner -lehden julkaisemassa artikkelissa.

– Toivon olevani väärässä, mutta uskon, että seuraavien viiden vuoden aikana puhkeaa kineettinen konflikti – ohjuksia, sukellusveneitä, lentokoneita, ei niinkään maaoperaatioita. Se on yksinkertaisesti lähes vääjäämätöntä, Center for European Policy Analysis -ajatushautomossa nykyisin toimiva Hodges toteaa.
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USA:n ja Britannian suhteellisen passiivinen linja suhteessa Hongkongin demokratialiikkeen tukahduttamiseen on hänen mukaansa saattanut rohkaista Kiinan kommunistijohtajaa Xi Jinpingiä entistä kovempiin otteisiin Taiwania vastaan.

Konfliktin uhkaa kasvattavat hänen mielestään niin Pekingin yhä uhmakkaammaksi käynyt retoriikka kuin sotilaallinen sapelinkalistelu Etelä-Kiinan merellä.

Presidentti Joe Bidenin hallinto saattaa siis joutua piankin ratkaisemaan, puolustaako Yhdysvallat aseellisesti Taiwanin koskemattomuutta vai tyytyykö se seuraamaan sivusta, kun kommunistinen Kiina saavuttaa koko Intian ja Tyynen valtameren alueen turvallisuustasapainoa horjuttavan voiton.

[Golimar]

Beijing issues deadliest war warning yet as China declares it is now 'ready to defeat' US
CHINA has issued its deadliest warning yet as Beijing warned that the US will be "defeated" if the two superpowers go to war amid a tense stand-off over the South China Sea and Taiwan.

By OLI SMITH
PUBLISHED: 00:00, Sat, May 15, 2021 | UPDATED: 18:12, Sat, May 15, 2021

China has pledged to rapidly defeat the US in a military conflict in one of the country's most explicit warnings yet. China's Global Times, which is seen as a Government news outlet, published an editorial revealing the threat in response to joint military drills carried out by the US. The US joined drills with Japan, Australia and France this week in an intended show of force against Beijing.

However, instead of backing down, China appears to have been rattled, prompting a fierce rebuke in Beijing's state-run newspapers asserting confidence in Chinese military superiority.

RT America's Alex Mihailovich said: "The Global Times put out an editorial saying the US would be defeated if any conflict broke out in the South China Sea.

X

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1436126/China-US-world-war-warning-South-China-Sea-Beijing-military-drills-latest-news-vn

[Skeptikko]

Chinese media threatens 'immediate war' on US troops in Taiwan after Senator leaks numbers
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1477990/china-news-taiwan-john-cornyn-US-troops-1979-immediately-launch-war-world-war-3

BEIJING will "immediately launch a war" on US troops in Taiwan if an American Senator's figures are correct.

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Chinese state-run Global Times, said the US and Taiwan "must explain" figures posted by an American Senator which claimed 30,000 US troops are on the island. It comes as Beijing and Washington have suffered worsening relations over Taiwanese independence, as well as operations in the South China Sea.
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Commenters believe Mr Cornyn is referencing the size of the United States Taiwan Defense Command, which boasted 30,000 troops from Combined Arms and branches but ceased operations in 1979.

World War 3: War fears skyrocket as China snipes US with message - 'Warning to Taiwan!'
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1477812/world-war-3-china-warning-Taiwan-independence-us-evacuation-Afghanistan-ont

CHINA has sparked fresh war fears after it warned Taiwan the United States "fleeing action" is a forecast in an apparent reference to the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.
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Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, warned the US could "cast aside" Taiwan should it fight for its sovereignty.

He told the Global Times: "The US' fleeing action is a warning to the Taiwan secessionists, or rather, a forecast."

Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, echoed Mr Li's remarks.

He said the US would make an "empty promise" to Taipei as it did with Afghanistan.

China dispatches warships and troops towards Taiwan while world's back is turned
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1478084/china-news-taiwan-military-drills-afghanistan-south-china-sea-xi-jinping-war

CHINA has taken advantage of the world's current focus on Afghanistan to launch a series of intimidating military drills close to Taiwan, with warships and fighter jets exercising off the southwest and southeast of the island, in a move Beijing said had been prompted by "external interference" and "provocations".

The confirmation came just hours after the editor of a state-run Chinese newspaper suggested China would "immediately" start a war with the United States if a US Senator's claims over the number of US troops on Taiwan were accurate, in a stark illustration of spiking tensions. Taiwan, which Beijing claims to be Chinese territory in accordance with its One China policy, has complained of repeated People's Liberation Army (PLA) drills in its vicinity in the past two years or so, part of a pressure campaign to force the island to accept China's sovereignty.

In a brief statement that contained no specific details, the PLA's Eastern Theatre Command said warships, anti-submarine aircraft and fighter jets had been dispatched close to Taiwan to carry out "joint fire assault and other drills using actual troops".
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The insider added: "In addition to seeking air supremacy over Taiwan, they have also been conducting frequent electronic reconnaissance and electronic interference operations."
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The source said Taiwan believed China, led by President Xi Jinping, was trying to gather electronic signals from US and Japanese aircraft so that they can "paralyse reinforcing aircraft including F-35s in a war."
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It was not immediately clear what set off the flurry of Chinese military activity, though earlier this month the United States approved a new arms sale package to Taiwan, an artillery system valued at up to $750million.

China believes Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is a separatist plotting a formal declaration of independence, something which would represent a red line for Beijing, and which experts predict would trigger a full-scale invasion.
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Washington has voiced its concern about China's pattern of intimidation in the region, including towards Taiwan, reiterating that US commitment to Taiwan is "rock solid".

[Valli]

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[Skeptikko]

The threat of China invading Taiwan is growing every day. What the U.S. can do to stop it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386

The Chinese military has already begun gray zone operations. An all-out attack on Taiwan looms if Beijing continues to escalate.
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For years, world leaders have been hesitant to respond to China's military aggression in the region. But Beijing's escalating rhetoric and military developments are pushing Washington and its allies to work together in ways never done before, such as the joint U.S.-Japanese military planning for a conflict with China over Taiwan. Just Monday, Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso declared that in the case of an attack on Taiwan, "Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together."
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The Communist Party now controls the most powerful military in Asia, the People's Liberation Army, and Beijing's increasing sense of urgency to annex Taiwan is evident in major changes to its military posture. Beijing understands that the United States is the most significant obstacle to its conquest of Taiwan, and has transformed its force to specifically offset U.S. operational advantages in the Pacific theater. To this end, the Chinese military has developed anti-ship ballistic missiles, attack submarines and an array of air and naval platforms for conducting saturation attacks to overwhelm enemies, all supported by space-based systems that make it more integrated and lethal.

Taken together, China's emergence as a near-peer military competitor to the United States represents the single greatest strategic challenge facing Washington. The pace and intensity of China's military modernization seem to have caught American leaders by surprise. This is perhaps less due to Beijing's mastery at concealing its efforts and more to Washington's complacent neglect of the Communist Party's ambitious pursuit of national rejuvenation as a means to challenge the American-led, post-Cold War world order.
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What is certain is that the Communist Party is already taking action against Taiwan. For years, it has carried out deliberate and incremental military provocations below the threshold of armed conflict, with the objective of compressing the space in which Taiwan's military can operate while intimidating its people
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Such subconflict operations, known as gray zone aggression, include frequent airspace incursions by People's Liberation Army fighter aircraft, shows of force by Chinese warships around Taiwan, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns designed to demoralize Taiwan's society and undermine popular support for the government in Taipei.

Soon, it's conceivable we'll see escalation short of all-out war. The exchange of fire between Chinese and Taiwanese forces, small-scale missile attacks and Chinese seizure of Taiwan's outer islands are all possible. If Xi's bid for a third term at the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Party Congress in 2022 should fumble due to internal opposition, taking military action against Taiwan could validate his credentials as both a champion of China's great rise and a strong leader who can stand up to America's so-called hegemonic forces.

All-out war, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future, as the People's Liberation Army still needs to address significant operational issues to mount an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. But the Communist Party has proclaimed that the military will be a fully modernized force by 2027, which could be when China perceives a window of opportunity for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

China aims to take over Taiwan in next decade: Former Australian PM
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4129479

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said he believes Beijing is planning to take over Taiwan in the next decade.

In an editorial he wrote for U.S. magazine Newsweek on Tuesday (Feb. 16), Rudd pointed out that Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping (習近平) is ambitiously trying to elevate himself to the level of the late communist leader Mao Zedong (毛澤東). He said this could be achieved if Xi manages to outcompete the U.S. military and "capture" Taiwan within the next 10 years.

Citing reports by the U.S. Department of Defense as well as from Taiwan, Rudd noted that Beijing has developed plans to parallel its military capability with that of the U.S. by 2027. He added that China has attempted to keep the U.S. out of the Taiwan Strait by using anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) technology.

Rumors of War in the Taiwan Strait – The Diplomat
https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/

Prospects of an imminent Chinese invasion are overblown – but that doesn't mean Taiwan can be complacent.

Fears that China will soon launch a military attack against Taiwan have spiked.

Three factors are feeding this anxiety. The first is the assessment by many outside experts that the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which includes China's navy, air force, and strategic rocket arsenal, has reached or is very close to reaching such a level of strength that attempting to forcibly compel Taiwan to politically unify with the People's Republic of China (PRC) is a feasible policy option. Among these assessments, none carried more weight than that of Admiral Philip Davidson, chief of the U.S. military's Indo-Pacific Command. Davidson opined before a U.S. Senate Committee in February that China might try to seize Taiwan by military means "in the next six years."

Lonnie Henley, a former senior U.S. intelligence official and now a George Washington University professor, said he thinks the Chinese government set a goal of being able by 2020 to successfully invade Taiwan, and probably now believes it has succeeded. Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University and the American Enterprise Institute reported in early 2021 that "Chinese military leaders have told me that they will be ready within a year."
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Chinese military activity prompted speculation that Beijing was preparing to capture the Pratas Islands, which the Republic of China (ROC) controls but which lie some 250 miles from the main island of Taiwan.
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To be sure, the PRC threat to Taiwan has grown steadily, and the trends are still adverse. China's military budget is estimated at $250 billion annually, compared to only $11 billion for Taiwan. The PLA has 12 times the manpower of the ROC armed forces. Last year the PLA Navy added 25 ships to its fleet, a rate neither Taiwan nor the United States can match.
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For domestic political reasons, China is extremely unlikely to embark on a war of choice against Taiwan in the next year. In February 2022 Beijing will have the opportunity to present itself in the best possible light to a massive international audience when it hosts the Winter Olympics, in which the Chinese government has invested lavishly. A cross-strait war would ruin this party. In October 2022, the CCP will hold its 20th National Party Congress. Xi Jinping will be up for a third term as CCP general secretary. It is hard to imagine Xi starting an unnecessary war with Taiwan prior to his re-appointment because of the high risk that war-related economic and even political turmoil would erode Xi's popularity.

Even with the PLA's improved capabilities, military action against Taiwan is an extremely risky proposition for China. An attempted invasion across the strait would involve the largest and most complex amphibious operation in history, and this by a military with no significant combat experience since 1979, when it performed badly in a border war against Vietnam. China could more confidently capture one of the ROC's smaller outlying islands or impose a blockade on Taiwan's major ports, but neither of these approaches would guarantee Taipei's surrender.

Chinese analyst Cui Lei of the China Institute of International Relations recently argued that Chinese leaders feel compelled to maintain an image of toughness toward Taiwan, but have no intention to launch a military attack in the foreseeable future. Cui argued that military action is daunting because Taiwan's people will not submit without a fight; the United States would help defend Taiwan out of fear of losing U.S. leadership in the region; China is not as militarily strong as the United States; war would cause discontent in China; and the international backlash would derail China's progress toward modernization.

China will go to war with the world in next six years Latrobe experts say
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/china-will-go-to-war-with-the-world-in-next-six-years-experts-say/news-story/9f19fdd5a2a2391378c58ee1d4522626

Experts say there's one issue that would trigger Beijing to enter traditional warfare – and it looks like Australia would be dragged into the conflict.

Is Asia going to war? That's the question LaTrobe University put to a panel of China experts on Wednesday. Their answer was unanimous. And disturbing.

Chairman Xi Jinping's ambitions are obvious.

He's using all means short of war to assert territorial control over regions as diverse as the Himalayas, the South and East China Seas, and Taiwan.

He's pushing limits. He's breaching norms. He's taking risks.

Now neighbouring nations are starting to push back.

Japan and India have begun to co-ordinate their military activities. The Philippines has reversed its decision to end its alliance with the United States. Vietnam has welcomed US Navy visits to its ports.

Now European countries are reviving long-neglected friendships by sending warships on extended tours through the region.
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"I don't think it's this year. But I think definitely within the next six to seven years," replied Dr Oriana Skylar Mastro of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University.

Guy Boekenstein, Northern Australia Fellow of the Asia Society, said an armed clash was likely: "I don't think we're likely to see a full-scale kind of traditional war within the next five to 10 years. But I think (there) is the potential for a strategic miscalculation".

"We're not on the precipice of great-power conflict in the way that we were in 1914. But we're a lot closer to that than we were," concluded Professor Nick Bisley, Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, La Trobe University.
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China's advancing on all fronts. Territorially. Economically. Diplomatically.
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"One of the main reasons China might actually go for this (Taiwan) landing is because they think that they could win," she said. "And not just that they could win if the United States does not intervene, that is obviously guaranteed, but that they could win even if the United States intervenes."

That's not because China is stronger than the US. It's because it's closer to Taiwan.

"It's possible that China can move before the United States even has the time to respond.

"My big question is, what does it mean for the region if the United States tries and fails? I think that's even worse."

"America's absolutely going to back Taiwan for a whole range of reasons," agreed Professor Bisley, "Not the least of which is if America doesn't back Taiwan, which other of its allies and partners around the world isn't it going to back? It'd be a serious credibility issue."

Mr Boekenstein says Australia would almost certainly be part of any coalition responding to China's aggression.

"If we look realistically at the Australian Defence Force and our ability to project power or defend Australia independently, you know, we shouldn't be kidding ourselves," he said. "We've got a very small but very capable military. But alliances and partnerships will always fundamentally underpin our defence and security."