Globaali taloustilanne/LAMA! (yhdistetty)

[Sivustakatsoja]

^Japanin viennin osuus maan BKTeesta on kyllä ällistyttävän pieni 

Johtuu pitkälti siitä, että japanilaiset suosivat kotimaisia tuotteita ja maan palvelusektori on merkittävän suuri (jotain 70% tienoilla BKT:stä).

[xor_rox]

Military spending ($ billion, 2011 prices)

1990
Germany: 73
USSR: 291
Saudi: 25
China: 19

2014
Germany: 46
Russia: 92
Saudi: 74
China: 191

https://mobile.twitter.com/intlspectator/status/763399548630818817?p=v

[xor_rox]

BRICS countries by companies in Fortune 500.

South Africa: 0
Russia: 5
Brazil: 7
India: 7
China: 98

[xor_rox]

UK military

154,700 active troops
227 tanks
254 combat aircraft
10 submarines
215 nukes

Spending: $56 billion


Turkish Military

510,000 active troops
2,441 tanks
241 F-16s
13 submarines
16 frigates

Budget: $22.6 billion


USS Gerald Ford

Length: 337m
Range: Unlimited
Displacement: 100,000 tons
Aircraft carried: 75+

Cost: $13 billion

[xor_rox]

Govt debt, % of GDP

Japan: 230%
Italy 133%
US: 103%
France 96%
UK: 89%
Germany 72%
Brazil: 66%
India: 66%
China: 41%
Turkey: 33%
Russia 18%


Willing to fight for country.

Pakistan: 89%
India: 75%
Turkey: 73%
China: 71%
Russia: 59%
US: 44%
UK: 27%
Germany: 18%
Japan: 11%

(Gallup)

[xor_rox]

[tweet]765527897947844608[/tweet]

[xor_rox]

[tweet]765571468965007360[/tweet]

[xor_rox]

[tweet]765956719704887298[/tweet]

[tweet]766001864169041920[/tweet]

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[xor_rox]

[tweet]766273856717848576[/tweet]

[tweet]766009295263588352[/tweet]

[Atte Saarela]

Tässä haastattelussa Michael Pento pohtii mahdollisuutta että jossain vaiheessa keskuspankkien pullistamat bondimarkkinat poksahtavat ja rysähdyksestä seuraa markkinakorkojen raju nousu.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-18/michael-pento-these-are-most-dangerous-markets-ive-ever-witnessed

Tosi vaikea sanoa mitä maailmantaloudessa tulee lähivuosina tapahtumaan, ja harmillista että suuri osa taloustieteilijöistäkin on oikeastaan ihan pihalla ja sitä mieltä että keskuspankeilla on homma hanskassa, mikä nyt on kaikista seinähulluin tulkinta tästä nykyistä taloustilanteesta mitä voi ylipäänsä esittää.

[hattiwatti]

^ Samaa povataan myös tässä artikkelissa:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-16/financial-system-worse-shape-today-2007

For seven years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis.

All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can't "save" the economy.

However, there is an AWFUL lot of money at stake in believing these lies. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.

So it's little surprise that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not only don't have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so.

So here are the facts:

·      The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

·      The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

·      Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it's likely a significant amount.

·      Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. The average credit rating for US companies that have issued debt is JUNK. This is WORSE than it was in 2008.

·      The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

·      The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed's balance sheet was $1.3 trillion. Today it's over $4.5 trillion.

·      Today, Central Bankers are now actively punishing depositors and bond holders with negative interest rates. Globally, over $13 trillion in debt currently have negative yields in nominal terms, meaning the bond literally has a negative yield when it trades. In the simplest of terms this means that investors are PAYING to own these bonds.

Bonds are not unique in this regard. Switzerland, Denmark and other countries are now charging deposits at their banks. In France and Italy, you are not allowed to make cash transactions above €1,000. So if get fed up with the banks and want to pull your money out, you cannot.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work. They haven't. All they've done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

More and more this environment feels like late 2007/ early 2008: when the economy was in collapse but stocks held up on hopes that the Fed could maintain the bubble. We're currently preparing for a similar situation today.

[Atte Saarela]

Jep. Ja sitten kun korkotaso nousee, seuraa ensinnäkin "tavallinen" lama, joka johtuu siitä että halvoista koroista riippuvaiset lainaajat (joita on paljon) eivät enää pysty maksamaan lainojaan..

Mutta lisäksi on vielä rahoitusjohdannaiset, joita on siis liikkeellä satoja biljoonia, ja korkotason nousu saattaa rasittaa näitäkin johdannaisia takaamassa olevien firmojen taseita aika lailla..

Tästä voi tulla sellainen sotku, että jos euro edes pysyy kasassa (mitä vahvasti epäilen), rahaa päädytään loppujen lopuksi painamaan todella paljon.. Vaikkei se välttämättä olisi kokonaisuuden kannalta paras vaihtoehto (en edes tiedä), mutta poliitikot kuitenkin valitsevat tällaisissa tilanteissa aina helpoimman vaihtoehdon.

Joten tämä näyttää joka tapauksessa Suomen kannalta todella huonolta, jos euro pysyy kasassa voi olla että pääsemme sitten nauttimaan vihdoinkin siitä keskuspankkiirien pitkään kaipaamasta inflaatiosta oikein runsain mitoin. Toisaalta jos euro hajoaa, sen arvo luultavasti laskee mikä tietenkin syö suomalaisten varallisuutta.. Todennäköisesti Suomen kanssa euroon jäisi joka tapauksessa Etelä-Euroopan maita joilla on taipumus harrastaa vastuutonta törsäystä mikä johtaa rahan painamiseen ja/tai pitää pelastaa Etelä-Euroopan maiden pankkeja mikä johtaa rahan painamiseen.

Paras ratkaisu olisi todellakin erota eurosta mahdollisimman pian.

[Vredesbyrd]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-27/global-housing-bubble-biggest-these-six-cities

ZeroHedge

The Global Housing Bubble Has Never Been Bigger Courtesy Of Central Banks, UBS Finds

by Tyler Durden
Sep 27, 2016 12:07 PM

One year ago, when UBS last looked at the world's most expensive housing markets, it found that London and Hong Kong were the only two areas exposed to bubble risk.



What a difference a year makes, because in the latest report by UBS wealth Management, which compiles the bank's Global Real Estate Bubble Index, it found a new champion for the title of "world's biggest housing bubble", namely a familiar name, Vancouver, but also that as many as six cities had made the "bubble" category, up from last year's two. Of last year's two "winners", London has been knocked into second place this year, and Hong Kong sixth, but both are still in bubble-risk territory.


Looking at soaring home prices across the globe, UBS has concluded that low interest rates have now created a new global housing bubble in major cities around the world, with Vancouver and London most at risk. Not surprisingly, the Swiss bank notes that ultralow interest rates at global central banks have contributed to overheating in the housing market in recent years.



Vancouver and London came first and second on the 2016 list of cities most at risk of real estate bubbles. Bubble risk was also evident in Stockholm, Sydney, Munich and Hong Kong: house prices in these six cities have increased by nearly 50% on average since 2011. The average price rise in other financial centers has been less than 15%.

Who is to blame for this latest global bubble? Why your friendly, local central banker of course.

As the WSJ summarizes, loose monetary policy at global central banks is a key driver behind rising prices, the report claims. Low interest rates have pushed investors to hunt for returns in tangible assets, "so it is hardly any wonder that housing markets are again overheating," according to report authors Claudio Saputelli and Matthias Holzhey.

For the European Central Bank, which controls monetary policy for all 19 member countries, the inability to adjust interest rates for particular economic development in separate countries has contributed to rising house prices in the region, UBS said.

While unemployment across much of Europe remains in the double digits, the locals are now faced with a double whammy of not only having no income, but even if they do, being unable to afford a home.

"All European cities are overvalued, apart from Milan," the report said. Central banks in the U.K., Canada and Australia are also keeping interest rates low. Combined with stable supply of homes and strong demand from foreign buyers, especially in China, "this has produced an ideal setting for excesses in house prices," the authors said, adding that price-growth deceleration in New York City a "sign of weakness of the financial sector."


Meanwhile, Vancouver house prices have been significantly overvalued since 2007, according to UBS. The culprit there is not so much the BOC as the PBOC: until recently Vancouver served as the primary offshore target for Chinese money launderers, which neither the financial crisis nor weakening commodity prices managed to dent. However, this bubble now appears to have finally burst after the provincial government of British Columbia introduced a 15% transfer tax on foreign home buyers in August, leading to a crash in the most expensive local housing segments.

As for other housing markets, UBS said that in London, an acute housing shortage and readily-available mortgages "should be able to sustain the inflated prices for the time being," the report said.

According to UBS it is impossible to predict what might pop the bubbles, and when, even in cities with the clearest signs of a problem, UBS said. "A sharp increase in supply, higher interest rates or shifts in the international flow of capital could trigger a major price correction at any time," Holzhey said. Additionally, a change in "macroeconomic momentum", investor sentiment, or major supply increase may trigger a "rapid price decline."

Finally, there was some good news for Chicago residents: UBS found that the Chicago housing market remains undervalued "relative to its own history." However, considering the daily shooting spree that takes place in that city, it is probably not a big surprise.

UBS concludes that investors now buying cities considered overvalued "should not expect real price appreciation in the medium to long run," UBS said.

That said, with every other asset class similarly overvalued, it is difficult to make a case in what other asset classes the nearly $2.5 trillion in record new liquidity created by central banks every year will see safer returns.

Suomessa pk-seudulla on taas monesti kalliimpaa kuin New Yorkissa, mutta meidän aasintuntijoiden mukaan mitään kuplaa ei ole. Ruotsin keskuspankin mukaan asuminen ei ole Suomessa riittävän kallista.

[xor_rox]

Kuinkas petrodollarin nyt käy?

[tweet]781216962848419840[/tweet]

[Atte Saarela]

Martin Armstrong ennustaa uutta suurta lamaa .. Tämä äijä on harvoin ollut väärässä

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQwwgxnmcc8&feature=youtu.be

[Titus]

Saudis, China Dump Treasuries

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-18/saudis-china-dump-treasuries-foreign-central-banks-liquidate-record-346-billion-us-p

mielenkiintoista, voisi olettaa, ettei kummallakin ole erillistä syytä hankkiutua noista eroon
vaikka jutussa mainitaankin kummankin maan oman valuutan/talouden tukeminen ?

[Atte Saarela]

Saudis, China Dump Treasuries

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-18/saudis-china-dump-treasuries-foreign-central-banks-liquidate-record-346-billion-us-p

mielenkiintoista, voisi olettaa, ettei kummallakin ole erillistä syytä hankkiutua noista eroon
vaikka jutussa mainitaankin kummankin maan oman valuutan/talouden tukeminen ?

Saudeilla varmaan tuo 9/11 laki painaa aika paljon, haluavat pitää rahansa turvassa oikeusjutuilta.

Kiina taas ehkä näkee, että dollari globaalina reservivaluuttana alkaa olla oleellisesti pyramidihuijaus Yhdysvaltojen vaihtotaseen suuren vajeen vuoksi, mitä Kiina ei ehkä enää halua rahoittaa. Tai sitten Kiina haluaa luoda painetta Yhdysvalloille siksi, että Yhdysvaltojen ja Kiinankaan suhteet eivät ole kovin hyvät tällä hetkellä.

[Atte Saarela]

Hyvä haastattelu Harley Schlangerilta maailmanlaajuisesta velkatilanteesta, finanssilainsäädännöstä, Deutsche Bankista yms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aM1-SgI9zE

Tässä haastattelu Charles Hugh Smith iltä "The entire economic system is one big illusion", esim Yhdysvaltojen taloustilanteesta sekä keskuspankkien talouspolitiikan vaikutuksista

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voH5Q77jzCU

Tämä Chris Martensonin haastattelu myös hyvä, sivutaan esim. sitä miten keskuspankkien harjoittamat osakeostot voivat tarpeeksi pitkään jatkuessaan siirtää meitä kohti kommunismia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTrsy75AG8k

[hattiwatti]

^ Kannattaa katsoa uusimman Suomen kuvalehden kansi. Hehkutetaan, että nyt kyllä on rakennuttajilla hommaa vaikka vuorokauden ympäri. Miksiköhän?

[hattiwatti]

http://petras.lahaine.org/?p=2107

Washington's Global Economic Wars

Introduction: During most of the past two decades Washington has aggressively launched military and economic wars against at least nine countries, either directly or through its military aid to regional allies and proxies. US air and ground troops have bombed or invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.

More recently Washington has escalated its global economic war against major economic rivals as well as against weaker countries. The US no longer confines its aggressive impulses to peripheral economic countries in the Middle East, Latin America and Southern Asia: It has declared trade wars against world powers in Asia, Eastern and Central Europe and the Gulf states.

The targets of the US economic aggression include economic powerhouses like Russia, China, Germany, Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Syria, Yemen, Venezuela, Cuba and the Donbas region of Ukraine.

There is an increasingly thinner distinction between military and economic warfare, as the US has frequently moved from one to the other, particularly when economic aggression has not resulted in 'regime change' - as in the case of the sanctions campaign against Iraq leading up to the devastating invasion and destruction.

In this essay, we propose to examine the strategies and tactics underlying Washington's economic warfare, their successes and failures, and the political and economic consequences to target nations and to world stability.

Washington's Economic Warfare and Global Power

The US has used different tactical weapons as it pursues its economic campaigns against targeted adversaries and even against its long-time allies.

Two supposed allies, Germany and Saudi Arabia, have been attacked by the Obama Administration and US Congress via 'legal' manipulations aimed at their financial systems and overseas holdings. This level of aggression against sovereign powers is remarkable and reckless. In 2016 the US Justice Department slapped a $14 billion dollar penalty on Germany's leading international bank, Deutsche Bank, throwing the German stock market into chaos, driving the bank's shares down 40% and destabilizing Germany's financial system. This unprecedented attack on an ally's major bank was in direct retaliation for Germany's support of the European Commission's $13 billion tax levy against the US-tax evading Apple Corporation for its notorious financial shenanigans in Ireland. German political and business leaders immediately dismissed Washington's legalistic rhetoric for what it was: the Obama Administration's retaliation in order to protect America's tax evading and money laundering multinationals.

The chairman of the German parliament's economic committee stated that the gross US attempt to extort Deutsche Bank had all the elements of an economic war. He noted that Washington had a "long tradition of using every available opportunity to wage what amounted to a trade war if it benefits their own economy" and the "extortionate damages claim" against Deutsche Bank were a punitive example. US economic sanctions against some of Germany's major trade partners, like Russia, China and Iran, constitute another tactic to undermine Germany's huge export economy. Ironically, Germany is still considered "a valued ally" when it comes to the US wars against Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, which have driven millions of refugees to Europe creating havoc with Germany's political, economic and social system and threatening to overthrow the government of 'ally' Angela Merkel.

The US Congress launched an economic-judicial war against its closest ally in the Gulf region when it approved legislation granting US victims of Islamist terrorism, especially related to the attacks on September 11, 2001,the right to sue the government of Saudi Arabia and seize its overseas assets. This included the Kingdom's immense 'sovereign funds' and constitutes an arbitrary and blatant violation of Saudi sovereignty. This opens the Pandora's Box of economic warfare by allowing victims to sue any government for sponsoring terrorism, including the United States! Saudi leaders immediately reacted by threatening to withdraw billions of dollars of assets in US Treasuries and investments.

The US economic sanctions against Russia are designed to strengthen its stranglehold on the economies of Europe which rely on trade with Russia. These have especially weakened German and Polish trade relations with Russia, a major market for German industrial exports and Polish agriculture products. Originally, the US-imposed economic sanctions against Moscow were supposed to harm Russian consumers, provoke political unrest and lead to 'regime change'. In reality, the unrest it provoked has been mainly among European exporters, whose contracts with Russia were shredded and billions of Euros were lost. Furthermore, the political and diplomatic climate between Europe and Russia has deteriorated while Washington has 'pivoted' toward a more militaristic approach.

Results in Asia have been even more questionable: Washington's economic campaign against China has moved awkwardly in two directions: Prejudicial trade deals with Asian-Pacific countries and a growing US military encirclement of China's maritime trade routes.

The Obama regime dispatched Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to promote the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) among a dozen regional governments, which would blatantly exclude China, Asia's largest economic power. In a slap to the outgoing Obama Administration, the US Congress rejected his showpiece economic weapon against China, the TPP.

Meanwhile, Obama 'encouraged' his erstwhile 'allies' in the Philippines and Vietnam to sue China for maritime violations over the disputed 'Spratly Islands' before the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Japan and Australia signed military pacts and base agreements with the Pentagon aimed at disrupting China's trade routes. Obama's so-called 'Pivot to Asia' is a transparent campaign to block China from its markets and trading partners in Southeast Asia and Pacific countries of Latin American. Washington's flagrant economic warfare resulted in slapping harsh import tariffs on Chinese industrial exports, especially steel and tires. The US also sent a 'beefed up' air and sea armada for 'joint exercises' along China's regional trade routes and its access to critical Persian Gulf oil, setting off a 'war of tension'.

In response to Washington's ham-fisted aggression, the Chinese government deftly rolled out the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with over fifty countries eagerly signing on for lucrative trade and investment deals with Beijing. The AIIB's startling success does not bode well for Obama's 'Pivot to Pacific Hegemony'.

The so-called US-EU-Iran accord did not end Washington's trade war against Teheran. Despite Iran's agreement to dismantle its peaceful uranium enrichment and nuclear research programs, Washington has blocked investors and tried to undermine trade relations, while still holding billions of dollars of Iranian state assets, frozen since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. Nevertheless, a German trade mission signed on a three billion trade agreement with Iran in early October 2016 and called on the US to fulfill its side of the agreement with Teheran - so far to no avail.

The US stands alone in sending its nuclear naval armada to the Persian Gulf and threatens commercial relations. Even the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the longstanding enemy of the Iranian Islamic Republic, has agreed to a cooperative oil production arrangement at a recent OPEC meeting.

Washington's declaration of economic warfare against two of its most strategic powerful allies, Germany and Saudi Arabia and three rising competitor world powers, has eroded US economic competitiveness, undermined its access to lucrative markets and increased its reliance on aggressive military strategies over diplomacy.

What is striking and perplexing about Washington's style of economic warfare is how costly this has been for the US economy and for US allies, with so little concrete benefit.

US oil companies have lost billions in joint exploitation deals with Russia because of Obama's sanctions. US bankers, agro-exporters, high-tech companies are missing out on lucrative sales just to 'punish' Russia over the incredibly corrupt and bankrupt US coup regime in Ukraine.

US multi-national corporations, especially those involved in Pacific Coast transport and shipyards, Silicon Valley high tech industry and Washington State's agro-export producers are threatened by the US trade agreements that exclude China.

Iran's billion dollar market is looking for everything from commercial airplanes to mining machinery. Huge trade deals have has been lost to US companies because Obama continues to impose de facto sanctions. Meanwhile, European and Asian competitors are signing contracts.

Despite Washington's dependence on German technical knowhow and Saudi petro-dollar investments as key to its global ambitions, Obama's irrational policies continue to undermine US trade.

Washington has engaged in economic warfare against 'lesser economic powers' that nevertheless play significant political roles in their regions. The US retains the economic boycott of Cuba; it wages economic aggression against Venezuela and imposes economic sanctions against Syria, Yemen and the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. While these countries are not costly in terms of economic loss to US business interests, they exercise significant political and ideological influence in their regions, which undermine US ambitions.

Conclusion

Washington's resort to economic warfare complements its military fueled empire building.

But economic and military warfare are losing propositions. While the US may extract a few billion dollars from Deutsch Bank, it will have lost much more in long-term, large-scale relations with German industrialists, politicians and financiers. This is critical because Germany plays the key role in shaping economic policy in the European Union. The practice of US multi-national corporations seeking off-shore tax havens in the EU may come to a grinding halt when the European Commission finishes its current investigations. The Germans may not be too sympathetic to their American competitors.

Obama's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has not only collapse, it has compelled China to open new avenues for trade and cooperation with Asian-Pacific nations - exactly the opposite of its original goal of isolating Beijing. China's Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) has attracted 4 time more participants than Washington's TPP and massive infrastructure projects are being financed to further bind ASEAN countries to China. China's economic growth at 6.7% more than three times that of the US at 2%. Worse, for the Obama Administration, Washington has alienated its historically most reliable allies, as China, deepens economic ties and cooperation agreements with Thailand, Philippines, Pakistan, Cambodia and Laos.

Iran, despite US sanctions, is gaining markets and trade with Germany, Russia, China and the EU.

The Saudi-US conflict has yet to play-out but any escalation of law suits against the kingdom will result in the flight of hundreds of billions of investment dollars from the US.

In effect, Obama's campaign of economic warfare may lead to the infinitely more costly military warfare and the massive loss of jobs and profits for the US economy. Washington is increasingly isolated. The only allies supporting its campaign of economic sanctions are second and third rate powers, like Poland and current corrupt parasites in Ukraine. As long as the Poles and Ukrainians can 'mooch' off of the IMF and grab EU and US 'loans', they will cheerlead Obama's charge against Russia. Israel, as long as it can gobble up an additional $38 billion dollars in 'aid' from Washington, remains the biggest advocate for war against Iran.

Washington spends billions of US tax-payer dollars on its military bases in Japan, Philippines and Australia to maintain its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. Its allies, though, are salivating at the prospect for greater trade and infrastructure investment deals with China.

Economic warfare doesn't work for the Washington because the US economy cannot compete, especially when it attacks its own allies and traditional partners. Its regional allies are keen to join the 'forbidden' markets and share in major investment projects funded by China. Asian leaders increasingly view Washington, with its 'pivot to militarism' as politically unreliable, unstable and dangerous. After the Philippine government economic mission to China, expect more to 'jump ship'.

Economic warfare against declared adversaries can only succeed if the US is committed to free trade with its allies, ends punitive sanctions and stops pushing for exclusive trade treaties that undermine its allies' economies. Furthermore, Washington should stop catering to the whims of special domestic interests. Absent these changes, its losing campaign of economic warfare can only turn into military warfare - a prospect devastating to the US economy and to world peace.

[Atte Saarela]

Juttu tulossa olevasta mahdollisesta dollaripulasta, mikä johtuisi siitä että dollarimääräistä velkaa on liikkeellä liikaa myös Yhdysvaltojen ulkopuolella..

"The idea of a dollar shortage sounds strange to many observers," Jim Rickards concedes. "Didn't the Fed print $3.4 trillion of new money from 2008–2015? How could there possibly be a dollar shortage with that much new money around?"

The answer, says Jim, is that the world created new dollar-denominated debt faster than the Fed created money. Every dollar printed by the Federal Reserve has been lugging around a 20-fold pyramid of debt on its back.

https://dailyreckoning.com/coming-dollar-shortage/

[Atte Saarela]

Bondimarkkinat laskussa, dollari nousussa

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-18/global-bonds-biggest-crash-over-25-years-looms

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-17/citi-only-other-time-euro-dropped-9-straight-days-ended-very-badly

Mielenkiintoista nähdä minkä verran nousevista markkinakoroista tulee ongelmia esim. Deutsche Bankille.

[hattiwatti]

Uusi maailmankauppapolitiikan tiekartta muovautuu pikkuhiljaa TTIP:n ja TTP:n kaaduttua.

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/11/24/all-aboard-post-tpp-world.html

[hattiwatti]

Suomessa pk-seudulla on taas monesti kalliimpaa kuin New Yorkissa, mutta meidän aasintuntijoiden mukaan mitään kuplaa ei ole. Ruotsin keskuspankin mukaan asuminen ei ole Suomessa riittävän kallista.

Missä Ruotsalaiset ovat noin sanoneet? Tuo kiinostaa, sillä Ruotsihan pitää talouttaan pystyssä rakennusteollisuudella ja asuntokuplalla. Vartiainen on näemmä ominut saman kuvion tännekkin sieltä. Ruotsin valtion rautatiet auttoivat auliisti Vartiaisen #unelmassa, ikäänkuin ennalta sovitun näytelmän mukaan.

Mutta joo, tuo kyllä kiinnostaisi jos haluaa ymmärtää matuilun isoja linjoja.

[hattiwatti]

Kiinalla on omat rakenteelliset ongelmansa.

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-support-yuan-makes-huge-dent-nations-savings/

http://www.atimes.com/article/china-risks-wasting-490-bn-coal-plants-campaigners/

[Atte Saarela]

Kun tulee seuraava kriisi, IMF saattaa saada melkoisesti lisää valtaa, jos James Rickards on oikeassa:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F4HwEvXV7-w

Kannattaa katsoa..

Ongelma seuraavassa talouskriisissä olisi siis se, että kansainvälinen kaupankäynti vaikeutuisi koska valuuttoihin kohdistuisi luottamuspulaa siksi että uutta rahaa pitäisi laskea liikkeelle niin paljon. Enpä ole toisaalta ihan varma olenko samaa mieltä tästä ja kyllä kaupankäynnin saisi varmaan organisoitua myös kultakannan pohjalle. Vaikka se olisikin alkuvaiheessa hankalampaa, ei olisi välttämättä hyvä jos virasto nimeltä IMF saisi itsensä ylennettyä maailmanlaajuiseksi keskuspankiksi.

[hattiwatti]

Mistäs nyt tuulee?

http://www.atimes.com/article/edmond-de-rothschild-said-exit-hong-kong/

Swiss private bank Edmond de Rothschild is closing its Hong Kong operations, according to three people familiar with the matter, more than two decades after it opened shop in the former British territory.

The Geneva-based bank and money manager, which had 167 billion Swiss francs (US$165 billion) of assets under management as of end June 2016, has already surrendered its China operating license and will run its Japan and Korea operations through its Swiss head office.

"This is part of a return to Europe strategy due to rising cost pressures," said one of the people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named. A spokesman for Edmond de Rothschild declined to comment.

The 63-year-old bank opened in Hong Kong in 1992 and was among the first of a wave of boutique private banks seeking to capture the business of a rapidly growing class of affluent Asians.

Two of the people said the Hong Kong operation would close by the end of December.

[Vredesbyrd]

Missä Ruotsalaiset ovat noin sanoneet? Tuo kiinostaa, sillä Ruotsihan pitää talouttaan pystyssä rakennusteollisuudella ja asuntokuplalla.

Täällä näin: https://www.uusisuomi.fi/asuminen/204639-ruotsin-keskuspankki-suomen-asuntojen-hinnat-aliarvostettuja-katsotaan-innostaako

Katja Incoronato
Luotu: 24.9.2016 10:50
Kuva: Petteri Paalasmaa /Uusi Suomi

Ruotsin keskuspankin mukaan asuntojen hinnoissa Suomessa on aliarvostusta.
ASUMINEN
ASUNTOJEN HINNAT

Ruotsin keskuspankki Riksbanken arvioi viikolla julkistetussa katsauksessaan, että asuntojen hinnat Suomessa ovat noin 15 prosenttia aliarvostetut. Katsauksessa on tarkasteltu erityisesti pientalojen hintojen kehitystä vuosina 1990-2015.

Samalla Riksbankenin ekonomistit Emilio Dermani, Jesper Lindé ja Karl Walentin varoittavat hintakehityksestä Ruotsin markkinoilla.

–Jos reaalikorot lähtisivät odottamattomasti voimakkaaseen nousuun esimerkiksi kansainvälisen pankkikriisin vuoksi, on olemassa riski rajusta hintojen laskusta asuntomarkkinoilla, he sanovat.

Hypon pääekonomisti Juhana Brotherus pitää Riksbankenin Suomi-huomiota mielenkiintoisena.

–Katsotaan, innostaako analyysi asuntojen hinta-alesta suomalaiset ostoksille. Elo-syyskuu käynnistynyt vahvasti, pääkaupunkiseudulla myyntiajat lyhyitä, hän kommentoi Twitterissä.

[hattiwatti]

http://hankamaki.puheenvuoro.uusisuomi.fi/228271-thomas-piketty-kurpitsanaamio-vai-taytetty-ankka

[Atte Saarela]

Hyvä haastattelu Michael Pentolta jossa pohditaan mitä tapahtuu jos markkinakorot lähtevät kunnolla nousuun ensi vuonna..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCyA9RMW5mA

Korkosijoittajat alkavat nyt ehkä oikeasti kyseenalaistaa esim valtioiden maksukykyä eikä keskuspankkien tarjoama "elvytys" välttämättä enää riitä kumoamaan tätä ..

Seurauksena voi olla mullistuksia jotka vaikuttavat lähes jokaisen elämään tavalla tai toisella.