GEAB N°33 - global geopolitical dislocation & a deep decade-long crisis

[HaH]

GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin) N°33 - Published March 16, 2009 -

Growing Transatlantic tensions on the eve of the G20 summit: An illustration of Wall Street's and the City's attempt to destabilize the EU banking system and the Euro.

In the past month, Washington has deliberately been trying to break the EU and weaken the Eurozone by relentlessly relaying false information on « risks coming from the East » and by stigmatizing Europe's "cold feet" as opposed to the US and UK's "voluntarist" actions...

Do-diid.  Osaa ne muutkin masinoida kuin me hommalaiset. Ilmeisesti USA ja UK myöntävät (itselleen) jo, että Dollari ja Punta kyykähtävät kohta, kun kerran pitää varmistella asemia tulevassa romahduksessa kyykyttämällä Euroa.

According to LEAP/E2020, there are only two options left for the G20 leaders who gather next April 2nd in London: either they rebuild a new international monetary system, creating the conditions for a new global system that involves all the main global players, and reducing the crisis to a maximum of 3 to 5 years; or they strive to prolong the current system, thrusting the world into a decade long tragic crisis starting at the end of 2009.

In this 33rd edition of the GEAB, we wish to describe the two ways forward that remain open until summer 2009. Beyond that, our team estimates that the "short-term crisis" option will be obsolete and that the world will be on the path towards global geopolitical dislocation (1), and a deep and decade-long crisis.

For this reason, due to the urgency, LEAP/E2020 has decided to publish next March 24th on a global scale an open letter to all the leaders of the G20. This will be our team's attempt to divert the system from the long and tragic crisis option.

The situation appears all the more worrying in that tensions are growing on the eve of the April 2nd summit. Indeed a number of thinly disguised threats on the part of some G20 leaders, as well as various attempts to manipulate public opinion on the part of others are to be observed.

We shall come back in detail on these aspects in this GEAB N°33 where the LEAP/E2020 team has also decided to engage in an exercise intended for all those (including the US where 20 percent of LEAP/E2020's readers come from) who are exasperated by the illusion fed by Western media about the state of the US as a cornerstone of our current system: anticipating the social and economic state of the United States in one year from now, in Spring 2010. Strong trends are already visible enough to enable this kind of forecast. Of course, a similar exercise will be conducted about the European Union, Russia and China in the following editions of the GEAB.

In line with their concern for reliable information, the LEAP/E2020 team (which warned about housing risks in Central and eastern Europe as early as December 2007 in GEAB N°20 decided to study carefully in the present public announcement the reality of this so-called "Eastern European banking bomb" which has invaded the media in the last month.

If we found this a relevant theme, it is because it represents in our opinion a deliberate attempt on the part of Wall Street and the City (2) to make the world believe in some rupture within the EU and to instil the idea that some « deadly » risk is weighing on the Eurozone, by endlessly conveying phony news on a "banking risk coming from Eastern Europe" and by stigmatizing a "cold-feeted" Eurozone as opposed to the "voluntarist" actions initiated by the Americans and the Bristish. One aim is also to divert the attention from the increasing financial problems encountered in New York and London, and to weaken the Europe position on the eve of the G20 summit.

The idea is brilliant: pick up a current and "in the news" theme to ensure interest, add one or two striking analogies to guarantee that the media and internet are eager to circulate the information; then call on a few devoted men and organisations, always available to tell one more lie. With this kind of a cocktail, you can even make people believe for a while that the war in Iraq is a great success, that the subprime crisis will not affect the financial sector, that the financial crisis will not affect real economy, that the crisis is not really severe, and that, if it is, everything is under control!

In the present case, the theme is a classic; it is about the separation between the « Old Europe » and the « New Europe », between a rich and selfish Europe and a poor and hopeful Europe. From Rumsfeld on Iraq to the United Kingdom on EU enlargement, this is a common theme repeated endlessly over the past ten years by the Anglo-Saxon and related media, and on which some British media in particular have become specialists (3).

As to the analogies, there are two: Eastern Europe is the "subprime crisis" of the EU (understand: of course, everyone has its own subprime crisis (4)); and, a crisis in Eastern Europe will have the same terrible effect as the 1997 Asia crisis (probably because both are Eastward (5)).

Suspects are not missing. In the first place, a rating agency - in this case Moodys (6), which, like the rest of them, first of all, is completely devoted to Wall Street, and then is incapable of seeing "an elephant in a corridor" (they missed the subprimes, the CDS, Bear Stearn, Lehman Brothers, AIG, ....). But, for some mysterious reason, the financial media keeps on repeating their opinions, probably generously applying the principle that they could be right some day purely out of statistical chance. In this case, Moody's prediction has been largely echoed: they saw a major « bomb » in the backyard of the Eurozone (as of course, it is the Euro we are talking about here)... about to devastate the European financial system.

Then, to make the idea more credible, you select some virulently anti-Euro media (such as the UK's Telegraph, for instance, which, despite the fact that they also produce some very accurate analyses of the crisis, are currently blinded as regards the Eurozone by the collapse of the British economy and Pound Sterling) and you circulate a news item that you soon retract (because it is inaccurate) so that it gains credibility by virtue of its retraction, of the secret (7) revealing some unfolding "financial tsunami" due to Old European banks' liabilities within the New European financial sector (8 ). Continue the story each day in the main US and UK financial media, knowing the others will follow out of habit (it is so easy as regards the EU, slow as it is to understand and even slower to react, with the inevitable dissent that makes it possible for the manipulation to gain momentum). This time, Hungarian Prime Minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, is the one playing the role of the « poor little new European martyr ». For the record, the Hungarians have vainly been trying to get rid of him ever since he involuntarily admitted two years ago that he lied to his citizens in order to be reelected, and confirmed in the same breath that he indebted his country beyond any reasonable limit. Now, he is the one announcing crazy figures for a bailout plan of the Eastern European financial system, giving the Old Europeans the role of the « bad » or « cold » guys. The latter's refusal is pinpointed by the entire US and UK press, coming to the natural conclusion that European solidarity has failed,... and understating (or completely forgetting) the fact that the Polish and the Czechs were the most virulent against the absurd claims of Hungarian Prime Minister (9). The attempt to weaken the EU and Eurozone from the East could have gone on further until the Eurozone leaders decided to make a number of strong statements and announced a substantial financial support plan (compared to the real risk), and political leaders and central bankers of the regions resorted to publishing tough press releases so that finally the manipulation began to lose momentum. But it has not disappeared yet, and the analogy between the subprime crisis and the housing crisis in Eastern Europe remains vivid in the mind of the media; as if Hungary was equivalent to California, or Latvia to Florida.

Ths is indeed the core of the problem: in economy and finance, size matters... and the tail never wags the dog, contrary to what some people would like us to believe.

As early as December 2007, at a time when our « current experts of the Eastern European crisis » showed no awareness whatsoever of the problem, LEAP/E2020 highlighted the fact that a considerable housing risk weighed on these European countries (Latvia, Hungary, Romania,...) and on their creditors (Austria and Switzerland in particular). However they always found obvious that these problems were limited to the concerned countries. There are indeed problems ahead for these countries and those commercially and financially involved with them, but these problems are no more serious than the average problems encountered by the global financial system; and they certainly do not compare with the problems faced by the financial markets of New York, London or Switzerland. Let us remind ourselves that the bank most often cited as being the "detonator" of this "Eastern-European bomb", i.e. the Austrian bank Raiffeisen, increased its profits 17 percent in 2008; a result beyond the wildest dreams of most US and UK banks today, as William Gamble noted, one of the rare analysts who studied what the story was really about (10).

For those who are not familiar with EU geography, a headline like « Hungary in bankruptcy » or « Latvia defaults on its debt » can compare to one like « California goes bankrupt ». For those who lose their jobs as a consequence, the problem is indeed similar. However, in terms of impact on a larger-scale, they have nothing in common. California, severely affected by the subprime crisis, is the most populated and richest state of the United States, while Latvia is a poor country with a population corresponding to 1 percent of the EU population (versus California's 12 percent of the US population (11)). Hungary's GDP represents less than 1.1 percent of the Eurozone's GDP (in the case of Latvia, this figure is 0.2 percent) (12), that is to say the equivalent of Oklahoma (1% of US GDP (13)) rather than Florida. Eastern Europe is far from being able to bring problems of a similar magnitude to the subprime crisis. All the new Member-States put together comprise less than 10 percent of the EU GDP (among them, the biggest and richest ones, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, are hardly affected at all). As a worst-case scenario, the amounts at stake for the European financial system, are around EUR 100-billion (USD 130-billion) (14), that is to say a very modest sum on the scale of the EU financial system (15). In fact, the EU has taken the lead of a consortium which has already injected EUR 25-billion (i.e. 20 percent of the worst-case scenario) to stabilize the situation (16), and whose severity has already been diminished by the recent fall in value of the Swiss Franc.

Last but not least, the value of new houses in Eastern Europe will not fall dramatically (even if the value will be less than in 2007/08) because, after 50 years of communism, there is a shortage of modern buildings. In the US on the contrary, an excessive number of houses were built during the last housing bubble, of variable quality and already depreciating in value in the most affected states. There, there is a real destruction of wealth for landowners, creditors, banks and the economy altogether.

The complexity of the ongoing crisis requires being extremely vigilant in identifying the trends and factors conveying real serious dangers, instead of being sidetracked by rumors and phony news.

We hope that this detailed explanation will contribute to debunk the lie orchestrated around a so-called « Eastern European financial bomb » (17) ; and that it will provide an illustration enabling each and everyone to see through first appearances, seek true facts hiding "behind the mirror" presented by mainstream media, and make up their own mind.

If the G20 Summit fails to prevent the world entering into the phase of geopolitical dislocation, similar operations of manipulation and destabilization will increase in number, each regional block trying to discredit their opponent, like any zero-sum game (18) : a player gains the other players lose.

Valitettavasti tekstin koko versiota ei saa ilman tilausta, mutta kyllä tuo lyhyt pätkäkin aika tiukkaa tekstiä on, kuten aina GEAB:lta (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin ).

Lähde.

Tuossa mainittu 24.3. julkaistava globaali avoin kirje voi olla kovaa luettavaa. Saas nähdä noteeraako Suomen media sitä ollenkaan.

[possu]

Tuossa mainittu 24.3. julkaistava globaali avoin kirje voi olla kovaa luettavaa. Saas nähdä noteeraako Suomen media sitä ollenkaan.

Ei se mitään. Laitetaan ainakin tänne, jotta ei jää lukematta.

Kyllä nyt läskit tärisee.

[Martel]

Sori vaan, HaH. Tuo on tuubaa. Myönnän että en lukenut aivan kaikkea, mutta luin riittävästi. Itä-Eurooppa on kusessa, siitä ei pääse yli eikä ympäri. Syynä on hyvin nopeassa tahdissa otetut valuuttalainat, jotka käytettiin johonkin muuhun kuin tuottavan teollisuuden luomiseen.

Esim. Virossa asuntojen hintataso on suunnilleen Suomen tasolla. Puhun nyt suht' uusista taloista ja kerrostaloasunnoista suurimpien kaupunkien lähellä. Virolaisten nettopalkka on kuitenkin n. puolet Suomen vastaavasta. Maalla on ollut mittava vaihtotaseen alijäämä koko itsenäisyyden ajan. Asuntolainoista n. 85-90% on sidottu euroon. Maan valuutta on n. 30% yliarvostettu. Kun tuosta tilanteesta lähtee devalvaatioon, siinä käy kylmät. Jos ei lähde devalvaatioon, käy kylmät (mutta palkkojen alentumisen ja työttömyyden kautta). Toisin kuin tuossa artikkelissa väitetään, kyse ei ole siitä että on "valtava pula nykyaikaisista asunnoista". Tai on, mutta ostovoiman pieneneminen ja pitkällä tähtäimellä myös heikko väestökehitys (matala syntyvyys, korkea poismuutto) painavat enemmän.

Espanjan pankit ovat kusessa, lainattuaan järjettömän määrän rahaa latinalaiseen Amerikkaan. Itävallan pankit ovat kusessa, lainattuaan järjettömän määrän rahaa Itä-Eurooppaan. Ruotsin Swedbank ja Skandinaviska Enskilda ovat kusessa, lainattuaan järjettömän määrän rahaa Baltiaan. Ei tämä tästä muuksi muutu. Länsi-Euroopan pankit ovat pumpanneet Itä-Eurooppaan rahaa 1,3 triljoonaa, dollareissa mitaten.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/119891-emerging-markets-watch-upcoming-eastern-european-economic-cataclysm

Lisäksi, koko idea siitä, että USA:lle olisi hyötyä Euron heikkenemisestä, on outo. USA:n ulkomaankauppa hyötyy nimenomaan vahvasta eurosta (=heikosta dollarista).

(http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/2/11/saupload_bankclaims.jpg)

[HaH]

Mjoo, siis jutun (jota et kokonaan lukenut) yksi pointti oli, että vaikka Itä-Euroopan joissain maissa onkin paikallisia kriisejä, eivät ne Euroaluetta heilauta mihinkään, koska kyseessä on koko alueeseen suhteutettuna hyttysen ininää - esim Latvian BKT 0.2 % ja Unkarin 1.1 % Euroalueen BKT:sta. (Alkuperäisessä viestissä olleen linkin takana on diagrammi, jossa verrataan Euromaiden BKT:tä.)

Mitä tulee Espaniaan, niin se kuulemma on GEABin raporttien mukaan oikeissa vaikeuksissa, kuten Hollanti, mutta jutussahan puhuttiinkin siitä, että Itä-Euroopan ongelmat ovat Euroalueelle merkityksettömät, toisin kuin "valhe-media" anta ymmärtää.

[HaH]

London G20 Summit: Last chance before global geopolitical dislocation


Open letter to the G20 leaders,
published in the Financial Times' worldwide edition on 03/24/2009



Ladies and Gentlemen,

Your next summit takes place in a few days in London; but are you aware that you have less than a semester to prevent the world from plunging into a crisis that will take at least a decade to resolve, accompanied by a whole series of tragedies and ferment? Therefore, this open letter by LEAP/E2020, who saw the arrival of a « global systemic crisis » as early as three years ago, intends to briefly explain why it happened and how to limit further damage.

If indeed you began to suspect the onset of a sizeable crisis less than a year ago, LEAP/E2020, in the second issue of their « Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin » (GEAB N°2), anticipated that the world was about to enter into the « trigger phase » of a crisis of historic proportions. Since then, month after month, LEAP/E2020 has relentlessly continued to produce highly accurate forecasts of the development of this crisis with which the world is now struggling. For this reason, we feel entitled to write you this open letter which we hope will aid you on the choices you will have to make in a few days.

This crisis is getting more and more dangerous. Recently, in the 32nd edition of its Bulletin, LEAP/E2020 raised an alarm of direct concern to you, the leaders of the G20. If, when gathered in London next April 2nd, you are not able to adopt a number of bold and innovative decisions, focused on the essential issues and problems, and to initiate them by summer 2009, then the crisis will entail a « general geopolitical dislocation » by the end of the year, affecting the international system as well as the very structure of large political entities such as the United States, Russia, China or the EU. Any chance for you to control the fate of the 6 billion inhabitants of the world will then be over.

Your choice: a 3- to 5-year crisis or a decade-at-least long crisis?

Until now you have merely been concerned with the symptoms and secondary effects of this crisis because, unfortunately, nothing prepared you to face a crisis of such an historic scale. You thought that adding more oil to the global engine would be enough, unaware of the fact that the engine was broken, with no hope of repair. In fact, a new engine must be built, and time is running out, as the international system deteriorates further each month.

In the case of a major crisis, one must get to the heart of the matter. The only choice is between undertaking a number of radical changes, thus greatly shortening the duration of the crisis and diminishing its tragic outcome or, on the contrary, refusing to make any such changes in an attempt to save what is left of the present system, thus extending the crisis' duration and increasing all the negative consequences. In London, next April 2nd, you can either pave the way for the crisis to be solved in an organised manner in 3 to 5 years, or drag the world through a terrible decade.

We will content ourselves with giving you three recommendations that we consider strategic ones in the sense that, according to LEAP/E2020, if they have not been initiated by this summer 2009, global geopolitical dislocation will become inevitable from the end of this year onward.

LEAP'S THREE STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS

1. The key to solving the crisis lies in creating a new international reserve currency!

The first recommendation is a very simple idea: reform the international monetary system inherited post-wwii and create a new international reserve currency. The US Dollar and economy are no longer capable of supporting the current global economic, financial and monetary order. As long as this strategic problem is not directly addressed and solved, the crisis will grow. Indeed it is at the heart of the crises of derivative financial products, banks, energy prices... and of their consequences in terms of mass unemployment and collapsing living standards. It is therefore of vital importance that this issue should be the main subject of the G20 summit, and that the first steps towards a solution are initiated. In fact, the solution to this problem is well-known, it is about creating an international reserve currency (which could be called the « Global ») based on a basket of currencies corresponding to the world's largest economies, i.e. US dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Khaleeji (common currency of oil-producing Gulf states, to be launched in January 2010), Ruble, Real..., managed by a « World Monetary Institute » whose Board will reflect the respective weight of the economies whose currencies comprise the « Global ». You must ask the imf and concerned central banks to prepare this plan for June 2009, with an implementation date of January 1st, 2010. This is the only way for you to regain some control over currently unwinding events, and this is the only way for you to bring about shared global management, based on a shared currency located at the centre of economic and financial activity. According to LEAP/E2020, if this alternative to the currently collapsing system has not been initiated by this summer 2009, proving that there is another solution than the « every man for himself » approach, today's international system will not survive this summer.

If some of the G20 states think that it is better to maintain the privileges related to the « status quo » as long as possible, they should meditate the fact that, if today they can still significantly influence the future shape of this new global monetary system, once the phase of global geopolitical dislocation has started they will lose any capacity to do so.

2. Set up bank control schemes as soon as possible!

The second recommendation has already been mentioned many times in the preliminary debates to your upcoming summit. It should therefore be easy to adopt. It is about creating, before the end of this year, a scheme of bank control on a global scale, suppressing all the system's « black holes ». A number of options have already been suggested by your experts. Make up your mind now: nationalize financial institutions as soon as is necessary! It is the only way to prevent a new episode of massive indebtment by them (the kind of episode which significantly contributed to the current crisis), and to show to the general public that you have some credibility to deal with bankers.

3. Get the IMF to assess the US, UK and Swiss financial systems!

The third recommendation relates to a politically sensitive issue, which cannot be ignored. It is essential that, no later than July 2009, the imf presents to the G20 an independent assessment of the three national financial systems at the heart of the current financial crisis: US, UK and Switzerland. No sustainable recommendation can be efficiently implemented as long as no one has any clear understanding of the damage caused by the crisis inside these three pillars of the global financial system. It is no longer time to be polite with the countries located at the centre of the current financial chaos.

Write a simple and short statement!

Finally, please allow us to remind you that your task is to restore confidence among 6 billion people and among millions of public and private organisations. Therefore do not forget to write a short statement – no more than 2 pages, presenting a maximum of 3 to 4 key ideas that non-experts can read and understand. If you fail to do so, no one will read what you have to say apart from a narrow circle of specialists, therefore you will not revive confidence among the general public and the crisis will be doomed to get worse.

If this open letter helps you to feel that History will judge you according to the success or failure of this Summit, then it has been useful. According to LEAP/E2020, your citizens will not wait any longer than a year before they judge you. This time at least, you will not be able to say no one warned you!


Franck Biancheri
Director of studies of LEAP/E2020, www.leap2020.eu
President of Newropeans, www.newropeans.eu

[Atte Saarela]

1. The key to solving the crisis lies in creating a new international reserve currency!

Minkähänlainen instituutio tarvittaisiin tällaisen valuutan luontiin, vaikea nähdä miten onnistuisi käytännössä. Kyllähän nykyäänkin voi jo hajauttaa valuuttariskejä eri valuuttoihin yksinkertaisesti ostamalla montaa eri valuuttaa. Miksi tämän hoitamiseen tarvitaan jotain uutta organisaatiota?

The second recommendation has already been mentioned many times in the preliminary debates to your upcoming summit. It should therefore be easy to adopt. It is about creating, before the end of this year, a scheme of bank control on a global scale, suppressing all the system's « black holes ».

Pankkien sääntelyä pitäisi todellakin lisätä, mutta on epäilyttävää väittää, että se olisi "helppoa sen vuoksi että siitä on viime aikoina puhuttu paljon"..

Pankkialan sääntely on yleensä haastava ongelma, ja suhtaudun skeptisesti jokaiseen joka väittää, että se olisi helppoa.

A number of options have already been suggested by your experts. Make up your mind now: nationalize financial institutions as soon as is necessary! It is the only way to prevent a new episode of massive indebtment by them (the kind of episode which significantly contributed to the current crisis), and to show to the general public that you have some credibility to deal with bankers.

Tästä voi varmaankin olla samaa mieltä, että konkkaan menossa olevat pankit olisi hyvä kansallistaa.

[tuukka]

Kiristääköhän foliopiponi ohimoita liikaa kun tästä tulee mieleen NWO, One World Government ja tän osaston touhut. Olen jonkun verran "seurannut foliohattuskeneä" erilaisten dokkareiden muodossa ja ite olen ajatellut että esim. jos Amero tms. joskus tulee, niin sitähän ei ulkopuolelta pakoteta vaan olosuhteet järjestetään sellaisiksi että sen käyttöönottoa suorastaan vaaditaan. Ja tossa mainittiin joku öljyntuottaja-arabimaiden (tms) yhteisvaluuttakin joka olisi tulossa, josta ei, yllätys yllätys, ole liikaa mediassa juttua ollut...tokipa/toivottavasti tällainen reservivaluutta on ihan omanlaisensa ötökkä...

Global geopolitical dislocation - tarkoittaa tarkalleen ottaen mitä? Ennustamatonta kaaosta johon kuuluu/voi kuulua sota, maailmansota, massiiviset pakolaisvirrat?

[Martel]

...vaikka Itä-Euroopan joissain maissa onkin paikallisia kriisejä, eivät ne Euroaluetta heilauta mihinkään, koska kyseessä on koko alueeseen suhteutettuna hyttysen ininää - esim Latvian BKT 0.2 % ja Unkarin 1.1 % Euroalueen BKT:sta.

Tuo on väärä tapa verrata asioita, johtuen yksinkertaisesti siitä syystä, että Länsi-Eurooppa on lainannut Itä-Euroopalle rahaa. Itä-Euroopan maiden bkt:t voivat olla pieniä suhteessa Länsi-Euroopan vastaaviin, mutta sinne kaadetut rahasummat eivät ole pieniä. Jos olet hyvätuloinen ja lainaat köyhälle naapurillesi huomattavan osa vuosituloistasi (ja säästöistäsi), sinulla on joka tapauksessa ongelma jos naapuri ei maksa takaisin.

Näin on käynyt ainakin Itävallalle, joka on ongelmissa tuossa graafissa sinisellä merkittyjen pylväiden kanssa. Baltian ongelmat eivät tapa Ruotsia, mutta ovat suurelta osin syynä kruunun heikkenemiseen. jne. Itä-Eurooppa ei sinänsä tapa euroaluetta, mutta tässä tilanteessa se on raskas taakka.

Joka tapauksessa tämä ylläoleva on hieman akateemista keskustelua siinä mielessä, että Euroopalla ei ole vaihtoehtoja jos Yhdysvaltain dollari alkaa heikentyä voimakkaasti. Euron on painuttava perässä, muuten autot palavat muuallakin kuin muslimilähiöissä.

[PaulR]

Foliopipo säkenöi mikroaalloista. Tätä "a sceme of bank control on a global scale" on odotettu jo pitkään.
Ja jos ette suostu, tippuu taivas niskaan.

[HaH]

Joo, on tuossa tietty folio-aspekti mukana. En itsekään pidä internationalismista enkä ylikansallisuudesta, mutta kun kyse on kuitenkin kaikkien valtioiden yhdessä käyttämästä reservivaluutasta, niin en oikein näe, että miksi sen pitäisi olla Dollari, kuten nykyään, tai mikään muukaan yhden valtion valuutta, vaan parempi ratkaisu olisi yhteinen yhdessä kontrolloitu globo-valuutta. On parempi, että tärkeimpien talousalueitten keskuspankit yhdessä säätelevät reservivaluuttaa, kuin se, että USAn Fed ja valtionvarainministeriö niin tekee.

Jenkit tuskin idiksestä tykkäävät, se kun nimittäin tuhoasisi heidän velkataloutensa. Mutta toisaalta, kun se on tuhoutumassa muutenkin, niin olisihan se USAllekin parempi hoitaa homma hallitusti. Taitaa kuitenkin ylpeys estää moisen.

Sen sijaan Euroalue, Venäjä, Kiina ja Japani saattavat moisen globo-valuutan luodakin, ja jos vielä öljymaat tulevat mukaan, niin se on siinä. Sen jälkeen USA ja UK joutuvat nöyrinä poikina tulemaan lakki kädessä mantereen puolelle.

[HaH]

Jahas. Kiina on jo vauhdissa.

China suggests switch from dollar China's central bank has called for a new global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund to replace the US dollar.

China presses G20 reform plans China has increased the pressure on world leaders just days before the G20 world summit by calling for an overhaul of the global financial system. Chinese officials want a new global reserve currency and reforms of international financial institutions to give developing nations more power.

[Turjalainen]

Joo, Iran ehdotti SCO:n maille yhteistä valuuttaa, siis Kiina poislukien. Iran, Pakistan, Keski-Aasian maat, jne. Alueella asuu 400 miljoonaa ihmistä. Tosin samaa ovat aikaisemmin ehdottanee myös Kreml ja Kazakstan. Eli käytännössä tämä tarkoittaisi sitä, että muodostui Euraasialainen valuuttaunioni, jonka valuutan arvon takeena toimisivat Venäjän, Keski-Aasian ja Iranin öljyt. Painajainen jenkeille.

Ai niin, ilmeisesti LEAP:n ja IMF:n suunnitelmissa viitevaluutaksi olisi tarkoitus luoda laskennallinen yhteisvaluutta, eli 90-luvun ECUa vastaava GLOBO, valuuttakori, jossa maailman päävaluutat voisivat arvossa vaihdella tietyissä rajoissa.

[HaH]

"The World at Crossroads" with Franck Biancheri (Äänitiedosto mallia mp3)

Guns and Butter

"The World at Crossroads" with Franck Biancheri, Research Coordinator of LEAP/E2020's GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin.  We discuss Franck Biancheri's open letter to the G20, "Last Chance Before Global Geopolitical Dislocation", which advocates for three strategic recommendations:  1) the creation of a new international reserve currency, 2) the control of banks on a global scale, and 3) an independent assessment of the three national financial systems at the heart of the current financial crisis - the United States, United Kingdom and Switzerland.  If radical action is not taken within six months, it is anticipated that the opportunity to shorten the crisis to a 3 to 5 year duration will no longer be possible, and the world (particularly the U.S.) will be in for a very harsh geopolitical dislocation lasting for a decade or more.

Open letter (Tekstitiedosto mallia pdf)

[possu]

1. The key to solving the crisis lies in creating a new international reserve currency!

Kelpaisiko tuohon jokin metalli, kuten kulta tai hopea?

[Turjalainen]

http://turjalainen.blogspot.com/2009/04/maailmantalouden-ja-usan-kohtalo.html

"Maailmantalouden ja USA:n kohtalo sinetöidään tänään Lontoossa

G-20 maiden johtajat kokoontuvat tänään Lontoossa etsimään ratkaisua maailmantaloutta uhkaavan laman torjumiseksi. Tähän mennessä esiin tulleet ehdotukset, YK:n työryhmän raporttia lukuun ottamatta, ovat kuitenkin vain hapuilua pimeässä. YK:n työryhmä ehdotti toissa viikolla ratkaisuksi talousongelmaan uutta laskennallista viitevaluuttaa dollarin sijasta, eli tarkemmin sanottuna 90-luvun ECU:n tyyppista valuuttakoria, eli GLOBO:a jossa kaikki maailman valuutat olisivat edustettuna. Näin voitaisiin käyttää viitevaluuttana näiden valuuttojen yhteistä laskennallista arvoa.

YK:n työryhmä oli oikeilla jäljillä. Samaa mieltä on LEAP. Nimittäin mikään vähempi kuin dollarista luopuminen ei voi pelastaa maailmantaloutta suistumasta koko taloushistorian tähän mennessä pahimpaan lamaan. Jos maailma pitää kiinni dollarista, se uppoaa USA:n mukana. Jos maailma luopuisi käyttämästä dollaria viitevaluuttana (mm. öljykaupassa), vain USA romahtaisi, mutta muu maailma voisi taloutensa puolesta päästä kasvu-uralle jo ehkä ensi vuonna.

USA, maailman ainoa supervalta, ei kuitenkaan tule missään olosuhteissa suostumaan siihen, että muut hylkäävät dollarin. Näin siksi, että niin kauan kuin maailma nojaa dollariin, muiden on pakko tukea ja luotottaa USA:n syöksyssä olevaa taloutta lainoin. Dollari valuuttana olisi jo vessapaperia ilman, että koko muu maailma on pakotettu käyttämään sitä. Jos muu maailma hylkäisi taalan, Dollari muuttuisi lähes arvottomaksi, ja USA romahtaisi tavalla, joka olisi seurauksiltaan lähes verrannollinen Neuvostoliiton romahdukseen.

Syy miksi maailma ei uskalla luopua dollarista, ja pelastaa samalla globaalia taloutta, on USA:n mahtiasema, jonka takeena ovat ydinaseet. Sen takia USA:lla on valta pakottaa muut pitämään kiinni dollarista viitevaluuttana. Tshekin vasta eroamaan joutunut pääministeri Mirek Topolanek oli oikeassa viime viikolla EU-parlamentissa pitämässään puheessa sanoessaan, että Obaman elvytyspaketti-linja on tie helvettiin. USA yrittää pakottaa muutkin maat pitäytymään vain rahoituksen lisäämisessä, eli lisärahan liikkeelle laittamisessa, mikä on, kuten olen aiemmin kirjoittanut, vain väliaikainen helpotus ja tulee pahentamaan seurauksia. Tästä ei kuitenkaan ilmeisesti ole, Topolanekin saaman palautteen valossa, korrektia puhua, ainakaan EU-parlamentissa.

Dollarista luopuminen ennen USA:n talouden täysromahdusta ei siis onnistu, koska niin kauan kuin suinkin mahdollista, USA pakottaa kynsin hampain muut pitämään siitä kiinni. USA on kulkenut liian pitkälle tuhon tiellä, eikä sillä ole enää keinoja estää oman taloutensa ja sitä myötä supervalta-asemansa romahdusta. Sillä on kuitenkin voimaa estää muuta maailmaa hylkäämästä sitä luopumalla dollarista, ennen kuin on liian myöhäistä. Tästä syystä uskon, että G-20 kokous Lontoossa epäonnistuu yrityksessään pelastaa maailman talous.

Tie helvettiin on auki; kuilu on edessä, mittarin näyttää kahtasataa, jarrut eivät toimi ja Uncle Sam estää muita hyppäämästä kyydistä."