Italian kansanäänestyksen vaikutus

[hattiwatti]

http://www.businessinsider.com/italys-referendum-and-the-risk-of-a-global-economic-shock-2016-12?r=US&IR=T&IR=T

......If contrary to the polls the "yes" vote wins, Italian bonds and banks will rally and the MIB (Italian stock index) will have a huge relief rally, particularly given its over-exposure to banks, and the euro will likely strengthen relative to other currencies.

If the polls are right and we see a "no" vote by a large margin, Italian yield spreads over German bunds will widen a lot. Italian bank stocks will accelerate downward and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will likely need external aid, which will put the European Central Bank in the hot seat,  and all eyes will be on German Chancellor Angela Merkel who is also watching Germany's Deutsche Bank spiraling downward.

Renzi will be pressured to resign, (unless the win is by the smallest of margins) and the Italians will find themselves back at the polls, with the outside chance that Beppe Grillo's Five Star could gain additional traction, which would be terrifying for anyone doing business in the region. The euro will weaken materially. European banks as a whole will likely take a hit and the dollar will get pushed further and further up as money races out of increasingly dicey Eurozone into the relative safety of the US dollar and US assets - a tailwind to US stocks and bonds. The Italy economy would slow further thanks to the increased uncertainty, which would bleed over into other European nations and global trade. The acceleration to the rising dollar headwind facing US multinationals could render the Fed's rate hike decision irrelevant in comparison and harm growth back in the States at a point when the economy looks just finally be gaining a bit of traction.

While it may seem like a minor event on the global stage now, history is full of moments that initially seemed of little importance, but like the final grain of sand that ignites a landslide, in retrospect those moments changed the global landscape in ways that were previously unimaginable.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-01/how-december-4th-could-trigger-most-violent-economic-shock-history

...Italy has had no productive growth since 1999. Real GDP per person is smaller than it was at the turn of the century.

That's almost two decades of economic stagnation. By any measure, the Italian economy is in a deep depression. And things will probably get much worse.

It's no surprise Italians are in a revolutionary mood...

The Five Star Movement (M5S) is Italy's new populist political party. It's anti-globalist, anti-euro, and vehemently anti-establishment. It doesn't neatly fall into the left–right political paradigm.

M5S has become the most popular political party in Italy. It blames the country's chronic lack of growth on the euro currency. A large plurality of Italians agrees.

M5S has promised to hold a vote to leave the euro and reinstate Italy's old currency, the lira, as soon as it's in power. That could be very soon.

Given the chance, Italians probably would vote to return to the lira. If that happens, it would awaken a monetary volcano.

The Financial Times recently put it this way:

An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.

It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

If the FT is even partially right, it means a stock market crash of historic proportions could be imminent. It could devastate anyone with a brokerage account.

Here's how it could all happen...

On December 4, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's current pro-EU government is holding a referendum on changing Italy's constitution.

In effect, a "Yes" vote is a vote of approval for Renzi's government.

A "No" vote is a chance for the average Italian to give the finger to EU bureaucrats in Brussels.

Given the intense anger Italians feel right now, it's very likely they'll do just that.

According to the latest polls, the "No" camp has 54% support and all of the momentum. Even prominent members of Renzi's own party are defecting to the "No" side.

If the December 4 referendum fails, Renzi has promised to resign. Even if he doesn't, the loss would politically castrate him. In all likelihood his government would collapse. (Italian governments have a short shelf life. There have been 63 since 1945. That's almost a rate of a new government each year.)

One way or another, M5S will come to power. It's just a matter of when. If Renzi's December 4 referendum fails—and it looks like it will—M5S will likely take over within months.

Once it's in power, M5S will hold a referendum on leaving the euro and returning to the lira. Italians will likely vote to leave.

Italy is the third-largest member of the Eurozone. If it leaves, it will have the psychological effect of yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater. Other countries—notably France—will quickly head for the exit and return to their national currencies.

Think of the euro as the economic glue holding the EU together. Without it, economic ties weaken, and the whole EU project unravels.

The EU is the world's largest economy. If it collapses, it would trigger an unprecedented global stock market crash. That's how important Italy's December 4 referendum is. It would be the first domino to fall.

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

Almost no one else is talking about this. That's why I just spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country.

Italy's December 4 referendum could make or break your wealth this year. If it fails, the EU, which has the world's largest economy, will likely fall apart... triggering an epic stock market crash.

[hattiwatti]

Suomenkaan mediassa ei ole ollut juuri yhtään pohdintoa, mitä Italia saattaisi tehdä eurovaluutalle tai maailmantaloudelle. Tämä on kuitenkin paljon isompi juttu kuin samana päivänä pidettävä Itävallan vaaliuusinta.

On paljon puhuttu, että useampikin Italian pankki voisi kaatua vaalien takia.

[Vredesbyrd]

Anton Monti, tuo Anni Sinnemäen mieheke, männäviikolla Politiikkaradiossa oli sitä mieltä, että tulee jokin italialainen tyypillinen ratkaisu, eli Renzi häviää äänestyksen mutta pysyy johdossa.

[hattiwatti]

Anton Monti oli näiden 2006 julkisuudessa esiin tulleiden preka-eetujen mentori joka kouli tämän sukupolven ottaen yhdekis aattelliseksi jutukseen no-bordersin. Varmaan kuitenkin punaisten prikaatien veteraani tietää mistä puhuu.

[Turjalainen]

Italia sitkuttaa vielä vuoden-pari ainakin. Uusia vaaleja ei tule ennen aikojaan.

Pankit siellä tietenkin on käsi pitkällä EKP:n velkakirjaohjelmien puoleen, eli me maksamme.