USA:n presidentinvaalit 2016

[Leijona78]

^ Siellähän on tervettä meininkiä.

[TheJ]

Trump johtaa nyt

ABC News: BREAKING: Donald Trump leads new national poll with 46% to Hillary Clinton's 45%

https://twitter.com/intlspectator/status/793420364525154305

Saman linkin takaa.

More ABC/WaPo partisan poll crap. +1 Trump but *still* a massive +10D oversample. Yes +10D. Election won't be close.

https://twitter.com/TheFalsinator/status/793421490091884544

Jenkit eivät nielleet Clintonin epätoivoisia selityksiä kuinka FBIn löytämät mailit ovat "ei mitään tärkeää".

Niinkuin jo aiemmin sanoin, FBI ei olisi pistänyt lusikkaansa tähän soppaan noin viikkoa ennen äänestyspäivää ellei maileista olisi löytynyt jotain todella pahaa. Media ja demokraatit yrittävät kovasti ajaa damage controllia, mutta sanoisin että tämä alkaa olla tässä. Avoimeksi jää kysymys riittääkö taatusti taustalla pyörivä vaalivilppikoneisto keikauttamaan tilannetta tarpeeksi jotta Clinton jotenkin edelleen muka voittaisi. Ennustan että jos ääntenlaskenta on rehellinen ja Demokraatit eivät taio jostain jotain aivan maatajärisyttävää skandaalia jossa on pihviä, Trump voittaa selvästi.

[Rubiikinkuutio]

Mitähän amerikkalainen veronmaksaja tuumaa, kun CNN raportoi käynnissä olevista kampanjakiertueista.

Mitä he tuumaavat? Tai mitä pitäisi tuumata? Miksei CNN voisi raportoida kanpanjakiertueista ja miksi juuri veronmaksajien pitäisi erityisesti olla huolissaan tästä?

[sivullinen.]

Juku kun menee jännäksi. Nyt Nate Silverin lainaama Dave Weigel on löytänyt jo jostain todennäköisyyden 24,4% Trumpin voitolle ja Nate Silver antaa itse voitolle 26% todennäköisyyden. Minun ei varmastikaan tarvitse laskea teille lukuja yhteen. Sen näkee selvin silminkin, että nyt ollaan menty yli 50% rajan.

Voittaja-Trumpin voitto on nyt tieteellisesti todistettu. Kaikki karkea loukkaukset Hillaryn kannattajien parista on nyt anteeksi annettu, ja kaikki ilkeät teot unohdettu. Nyt meidän kaikkien protrumpetistien on puhallettava yhteen hiileen auttaakseemme Trumpia toteuttamaan lupauksensa. Ensimmäisenä päivänä Trump tulee rakentamaan muurin; niin suuren ja mahtavan muurin, ettei sellaista ole nähty edes Kiinassa, jossa on nähty aika suuria ja mahtavia muureja, ja väitetään niiden näkyvän avaruuteen asti. Toisena päivänä Trump tuo rauhan maapallolle tappamalla kaikki vääräuskoisen muslimit ja muut vääräuskoiset. Trumpin hallintokauden Kolmantena päivänä koittaa suuri kunnia myös meille eurostoihmisille. Sinä päivänä hän vapauttaa meidät kansojen vankilasta nimeltä Neuvostoliitto; sanoinko Neuvostoliitto minun piti sanoa Eurostoliitto, mutta jostain syystä aivoni valitsivat paremmin sointuvan samaa tarkoittavan sanan lauseen loppuun. Neljäntenä päivänä Trumpin valtaannousun jälkeen koittaa uusi aika, Canopus ottaa pohjantähden paikan ja Satya Yuga alkaa. Ihmiskunnan hurraa huudot täyttävät maan ja taivaasta sataa hunajaa ja keksejä.

Voittaja-Trumpin voiton tiellä ei enää ole esteitä. Anna mennä Trump. Kulje tiesi loppuun asti.

[xor_rox]

Mitähän amerikkalainen veronmaksaja tuumaa, kun CNN raportoi käynnissä olevista kampanjakiertueista.

Mitä he tuumaavat? Tai mitä pitäisi tuumata? Miksei CNN voisi raportoida kanpanjakiertueista ja miksi juuri veronmaksajien pitäisi erityisesti olla huolissaan tästä?

Kenties siksi, että istuva presidentti ja varapresidentti kulkevat veronmaksajien kustannuksella kampanjoimassa toisen ehdokkaan puolesta ja toista vastaan. Omituista, ettei lamppu syttynyt.

[Leijona78]

Suomen mediassa ei olla oikein asiaan herätty. Iltalehti kirjoitti

Trump meni presidenttikisan johtoon


Tiistai 1.11.2016 klo 13.46
 
  
 
Donald Trump johtaa nyt presidenttikisaa yhdellä prosenttiyksiköllä uusimman mittauksen mukaan.

Kyseessä on ensimmäinen kerta sitten toukokuun, kun Trump johtaa presidenttikisaa kilpailijaansa Hillary Clintoniin nähden. Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit ovat viikon päästä tiistaina.

FBI ilmoitti viikonloppuna tutkivansa Hillary Clintoniin liityvät sähköpostit uudelleen. FBI:n johtajaa on syytetty vaalitulokseen vaikuttamisesta.

Lisää hetken kuluttua

Jotakin tosin tapahtui, sillä tuosta "hetken kuluttua"-hetkestä on kohta 3 tuntia.
http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/2016110122549798_ul.shtml

[Ajattelija2008]

Paddypower antaa nyt 73 % - 27 % Clinton -Trump.

Tuttuun tapaan olen jättänyt muut ehdokkaat huomiotta ja skaalannut todennäköisyydet, että summa on 100 %.

Itse olen aika varma Clintonn voitosta, mutta kun kerran vedonlyöntitoimisto on tuota mieltä, niin kyllä Trumpilla on edelleen mahdollisuus.

Jos Trump voittaa, niin kongressi estää häntä toimimasta. Ainakin saadaan viihdettä seuraavaksi 4 vuodeksi.

[Uimakoulutettava]

Vielä ehtii penkoa skandaaleja pöytään, materiaalia varmasti riittää molemmin puolin, nyt vain kilpaillaan sisällön kiinnostavuudesta ja ajoituksesta.

Vaalit kuitenkin ratkaisee se, jäävätkö he kotiin, jotka tavallisestikin jäävät. Muistatteko BREXITin?

Hei YLE, HS ja maakunnalliset valtamediat, pelottaako Väärin Tiedostava puolikas kansasta? 

On syytäkin.

[xor_rox]

^ Skandaaleja olisi vaikka useampia per päivä, jos tärähtäneistömedia niihin kiinnittäisi huomiota, mutta näillä mennään nyt.

Olisi varmasti hienoa, jos Soros jakelisi Suomenkin hallitukselle vinkkejä kansalliseen turvallisuuteen liittyvissä uudistuksissa. Tai ettei vain jakelisikin jo. Suomessahan poliisien määrää vähennetään, varuskuntia suljetaan, varmuusvarastoista luovutaan ja kymmeniä tuhansia sotilaskuntoisia muslimimiehiä asutetaan pitkin maakuntia. Eihän kukaan täällä moisia saisi päähänsä omasta takaa?

[tweet]793452704425181184[/tweet]

[Titus]

Yhdysvalloissa republikaanien presidenttiehdokas Donald Trump on kiilannut tuoreessa
mielipidemittauksessa demokraattien ehdokkaan Hillary Clintonin edelle. Mielipidemittauksen
toteuttivat ABC News ja Washington Post.

https://demokraatti.fi/trump-ohitti-clintonin/


hs on keskittynyt kertomaan kuinka paljon ihmiset ovat
työllään ansainneet rahaa ja kuinka vähän he maksavat siitä veroja.

[JulmaJuha]

IL kertoo, että mihin Trumpin nousu kisan johtoon perustuu.

Historian törkein vaalitaistelu väsytti amerikkalaiset

http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/2016110122548966_ul.shtml

Varsin neutraali ja objektiivinen selvitys viimeisimmästä tilanteesta?

No ei todellakaan. Ilmeisesti jossakin ollaan jo niin varmoja Trumpin menestyksestä, että pitää alkaa kaiken varalta selittämään Trumpin mahdollinen voittokin häviöksi, tai miksi se ei ainakaan lopultakaan merkitse yhtään mitään. Kansan olisi silti vain jatkettava elämää.

Mukana myös haikea muiselma siitä, että miten obama oli kampanjoinut vain positiivisilla asioilla, kun taas näissä vaaleissa on esillä vain uhat, pelot ja negatiiviset asiat.

Ilmeisesti Trumpin viljelemä iskulause "Make America Great Again" pelottaa tiettyjä piirejä ja sisältää heidän arvomaailmassaan vastaavan negatiivisen varauksen, kuin meillä täällä iskulause "Suomi ensin".

[toumasho]

Jotakin tosin tapahtui, sillä tuosta "hetken kuluttua"-hetkestä on kohta 3 tuntia.
http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/2016110122549798_ul.shtml

Suruviinapullo raksahti auki ja toimituksessa etsitään nyt sellaista simpauttajaa, joka selittäisi asiat parhain päin Clintonin kannalta.

[Kremppamestari]

Suomen mediassa ei olla oikein asiaan herätty. Iltalehti kirjoitti

Trump meni presidenttikisan johtoon


Tiistai 1.11.2016 klo 13.46
 
  
 
Donald Trump johtaa nyt presidenttikisaa yhdellä prosenttiyksiköllä uusimman mittauksen mukaan.

Kyseessä on ensimmäinen kerta sitten toukokuun, kun Trump johtaa presidenttikisaa kilpailijaansa Hillary Clintoniin nähden. Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit ovat viikon päästä tiistaina.

FBI ilmoitti viikonloppuna tutkivansa Hillary Clintoniin liityvät sähköpostit uudelleen. FBI:n johtajaa on syytetty vaalitulokseen vaikuttamisesta.

Lisää hetken kuluttua

Jotakin tosin tapahtui, sillä tuosta "hetken kuluttua"-hetkestä on kohta 3 tuntia.
http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/2016110122549798_ul.shtml

Samaa ihmettelen ja vielä enemmän sitä, ettei Ilta-Sanomat pukahda tänään mitään vaaleista, vaikka on luvannut viimeisen kuukauden raportoida kannatusluvut ja analysoida niitä joka päivä.

[hattiwatti]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/wikileaks-reveals-googles-strategic-plan-help-democrats-win-election
...

The remainder of Schmidt's proposed plan, presented in its entirety below, is just as troubling.

Notes for a 2016 Democratic Campaign
Eric Schmidt
April 2014

DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT

Here are some comments and observations based on what we saw in the 2012 campaign.  If we get started soon, we will be in a very strong position to execute well for 2016.

1. Size, Structure and Timing

Lets assume a total budget of about $1.5Billion, with more than 5000 paid employees and million(s) of volunteers.  The entire startup ceases operation four days after November 8, 2016.  The structure includes a Chairman or Chairwoman who is the external face of the campaign and a President who is the executive in charge of objectives, measurements, systems and building and managing the organization.

Every day matters as our end date does not change.  An official campaign right after midterm elections and a preparatory team assembled now is best.

2. Location

The campaign headquarters will have about a thousand people, mostly young and hardworking and enthusiastic.  Its important to have a very large hiring pool (such as Chicago or NYC) from which to choose enthusiastic, smart and low paid permanent employees.  DC is a poor choice as its full of distractions and interruptions.  Moving the location from DC elsewhere guarantees visitors have taken the time to travel and to help.

The key is a large population of talented people who are dying to work for you.  Any outer borough of NYC, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Boston are all good examples of a large, blue state city to base in.

Employees will relocate to participate in the campaign, and will find low cost temporary housing or live with campaign supporters on a donated basis.  This worked well in Chicago and can work elsewhere.

The computers will be in the cloud and most likely on Amazon Web services (AWS).  All the campaign needs are portable computers, tablets and smart phones along with credit card readers.

3. The pieces of a Campaign

a) The Field

Its important to have strong field leadership, with autonomy and empowerment.  Operations talent needs to build the offices, set up the systems, hire the people, and administer what is about 5000 people.  Initial modeling will show heavy hiring in the key battleground states.  There is plenty of time to set these functions up and build the human systems.  The field is about organizing people, voter contact, and get out the vote programs.

For organizing tools, build a simple way to link people and activities as a workflow and let the field manage the system, all cloud based.  Build a simple organizing tool with a functioning back-end.  Avoid deep integration as the benefits are not worth it.  Build on the cloud.  Organizing is really about sharing and linking people, and this tool would measure and track all of it.

There are many other crucial early investments needed in the field: determining the precise list of battleground states, doing early polling to confirm initial biases, and maintaining and extending voter protection programs at the state level.

b) The Voter

Key is the development of a single record for a voter that aggregates all that is known about them.  In 2016 smart phones will be used to identify, meet, and update profiles on the voter.  A dynamic volunteer can easily speak with a voter and, with their email or other digital handle, get the voter videos and other answers to areas they care about ("the benefits of ACA to you" etc.)

The scenario includes a volunteer on a walk list, encountering a potential voter, updating the records real time and deepening contact with the voter and the information we have to offer.

c) Digital

A large group of campaign employees will use digital marketing methods to connect to voters, to offer information, to use social networks to spread good news, and to raise money.  Partners like Blue State Digital will do much of the fund raising.  A key point is to convert BSD and other partners to pure cloud service offerings to handle the expected crush and load.

d) Media (paid), (earned) and (social), and polling

New tools should be developed to measure reach and impact of paid, earned and social media.  The impact of press coverage should be measurable in reach and impact, and TV effectiveness measured by attention and other surveys.

Build tools that measure the rate and spread of stories and rumors, and model how it works and who has the biggest impact.  Tools can tell us about the origin of stories and the impact of any venue, person or theme.  Connect polling into this in some way.

Find a way to do polling online and not on phones.

e) Analytics and data science and modeling, polling and resource optimization tools

For each voter, a score is computed ranking probability of the right vote.  Analytics can model demographics, social factors and many other attributes of the needed voters.  Modeling will tell us what who we need to turn out and why, and studies of effectiveness will let us know what approaches work well.    Machine intelligence across the data should identify the most important factors for turnout, and preference.

It should be possible to link the voter records in Van with upcoming databases from companies like Comcast and others for media measurement purposes.

The analytics tools can be built in house or partnered with a set of vendors.

f) Core engineering, voter database and contact with voters online

The database of voters (NGP Van) is a fine starting point for voter records and is maintained by the vendor (and needs to be converted to the cloud).  The code developed for 2012 (Narwahl etc.) is unlikely to be used, and replaced by a model where the vendor data is kept in the Van database and intermediate databases are arranged with additional information for a voter.

Quite a bit of software is to be developed to match digital identities with the actual voter file with high confidence.  The key unit of the campaign is a "voter", and each and every record is viewable and updatable by volunteers in search of more accurate information.

In the case where we can't identify the specific human, we can still have a partial digital voter id, for a person or "probable-person" with attributes that we can identify and use to target.  As they respond we can eventually match to a registered voter in the main file.  This digital key is eventually matched to a real person.

The Rules

Its important that all the player in the campaign work at cost and there be no special interests in the financing structure.  This means that all vendors work at cost and there is a separate auditing function to ensure no one is profiting unfairly from the campaign.  All investments and conflicts of interest would have to be publicly disclosed.  The rules of the audit should include caps on individual salaries and no investor profits from the campaign function.  (For example, this rule would apply to me.)

The KEY things

a) early build of an integrated development team and recognition that this is an entire system that has to be managed as such
b) decisions to exclusively use cloud solutions for scalability, and choice of vendors and any software from 2012 that will be reused.
c) the role of the smart phone in the hands of a volunteer.  The smart phone manages the process, updates the database, informs the citizen, and allows fundraising and recruitment of volunteers (on android and iphone).
d) early and continued focus of qualifying fundraising dollars to build the field, and build all the tools.  Outside money will be plentiful and perfect for TV use.  A smart media mix tool tells all we need to know about media placement, TV versus other media and digital media.

[Titus]

Trumpin puhe livenä ihan pian, piti alkaa 17.00

live nyt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-0O85R8xcg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2f8KEJinwAI

tai

ellei ole "teknisiä vaikeuksia"
http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/a1477981831977

[xor_rox]

Lisää kuvia historian lehdille lokakuun 2016 tunnelmista.

[tweet]792872720929214464[/tweet]

[JKN93]

Saa nähdä tuleeko sieltä demokraateilta ja eliitiltä vielä ennen vaalipäivää sellaista "paljastus pommia" joka estäisi Trumpin voiton.
Tässähän on vielä päiviä aikaa..
Onko tämä Trumpin mahdollinen johtoon meno ja Clitonin tutkinnat vaaleja edeltävällä viikolla vielä vain hämäystä..?
Saa nähdä..

http://www.iltalehti.fi/paakirjoitus/2016110122549246_pk.shtml

FBI otti suuren roolin USA:n presidentinvaalissa

Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaalit maaliviivoille sekavissa tunnelmissa.

Yhdysvaltain liittovaltion poliisin FBI:n päällikkö James Comey julkisti viime perjantaina tiedon siitä, että FBI on avannut uudelleen selvityksen Clintoniin mahdollisesti liittyvistä sähköposteista. Kesällä Comey puolestaan ilmoitti, että silloin tutkitut Clintonin sähköpostit eivät antaneet aihetta oikeudellisiin toimiin. Tieto FBI:n uudesta tutkinnasta tuli vain vajaa kaksi viikkoa ennen Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaaleja.

FBI:n uudet tutkimukset liittyvät Hillary Clintonin avustajan Huma Abedinin sähköposteihin. Abedinin sähköpostit löytyivät tämän entisen aviomiehen Anthony Weinerin kannettavasta tietokoneesta. Weiner ja Abedin erosivat äskettäin Weinerin jäätyä kiinni seksististen viestien ja kuvien lähettelystä alaikäiselle tytölle. Viranomaiset olivat varsinaisesti tutkimassa Weinerin toimintaa.

Eurooppalaisesta näkökulmasta on vaikea ymmärtää FBI:n ilmoituksen ajoitusta, jos Hillary Clintonin osalta ei pystytä kertomaan mitään uutta olennaista tietoa hänen sähköposteistaan. Pelkkä tieto tutkinnasta vaikuttaa vahvasti vaalien loppusuoran tilanteeseen. Clinton itse onkin vaatinut liittovaltion poliisia julkistamaan kaikki asiaan liittyvät tiedot. Myös oikeusministeriö oli varoittanut Comeya, ettei tämän tulisi julkistaa tietoa Clinton-sähköpostien uudesta tutkinnasta juuri presidentinvaalien alla. Comey päätti kuitenkin toimia vastoin esimiestensä ohjetta.

Senaatin demokraattien johtaja Harry Reid syytti sunnuntaina FBI:n johtajaa Comeya niin kutsutun Hatch Actin rikkomisesta. Sen mukaan hallinnon viranomaiset eivät saa käyttää asemaansa vaaleihin vaikuttamiseksi. Reid väittää myös, että FBI:n johtaja Comey on jättänyt julkistamatta tiedot tiiviistä yhteydenpidosta Venäjän hallituksen, Donald Trumpin ja tämän keskeisten neuvonantajien välillä. Reid kertoo vaatineensa julkaisemaan nuo tiedot jo kuukausia sitten. Yhdysvaltojen presidentinvaaleista ja siihen liittyvistä FBI:n tutkimuksista saisi jo nyt sellaisen tarinan, että elokuvakäsikirjoituksena sitä pidettäisiin liian epäuskottavana.

Clinton johti vielä viime viikolla presidentinvaalikisaa reilusti. Sunnuntaina julkistetun ABC Newsin ja Washington Postin mielipidemittauksen mukaan nyt välimatkaa oli enää yksi prosenttiyksikkö. Vaalit ovat viikon päästä tiistaina. Clintonin etumatka vastaehdokkaaseensa Donald Trumpiin näyttää kaventuneen viikonloppuna julkaistuissa kannatusmittauksissa. ABC:n ja Washington Postin mielipidemittauksen mukaan Clintonia kannattaa 46 ja republikaanien Trumpia 45 prosenttia äänioikeutetuista.

[Titus]

FBI otti suuren roolin USA:n presidentinvaalissa

Tarkoitatko, että FBI ei olisi ottanut roolia jos olisi jättänyt kertomatta, että toista
kandidaattia tutkitaan ja on mahdollista, että syytteet ovat hyinkin vakavat ?

[klassinen]

Mitä ainetta sivullinen vetäö ja mistä sitä saa?

Ikänsä sosialistisen illuusion kuplassa eläneenä jopa älykäs ja kyvykäs mies saattaa hetkeksi mennä sekaisin onnesta kun tajuaa meitä kohdanneen julman petoksen laajuuden ja alkaa tervehtyä. Joku humaltuu viinasta, toinen totuudesta. Iloitkaamme.

[Titus]

Varovainen ja hillitty esiintyminen eikä sen kummempaa piikkiä tai haukkumista

jos clinton kohdistaa suunnitelmansa mukaan juttunsa suoraan
trumpiin henkilönä, niin vituiksi menee. parempi keksiä asiaa.

[Kuli]

Porukkaa joutuu linnaan pitkäksi aikaa...

John Podesta on sähköpostissa kehottanut hävittämään sähköpostit kongressin haasteen JÄLKEEN. Tämä täyttää tarkoituksellisuuden tunnusmerkit ja on vakava rikos jo itsessään.

WE HAVE A SMOKING GUN: John Podesta tells Cheryl Mills "we're going to have to dump all those emails" the day after subpoena. INTENT.

https://twitter.com/GunterGSharp/status/793484628870828032

[Pärmi]

YLE antoi taas kuvan luotettavasta tiedonvälityksestä klo 17 ja 18 Uutisissa, ja jätti kertomatta ehdokkaiden kannatuksien dramaattisen käänteen. YLE osaa.

[Titus]

en tiesä onko tämä 300/this is sparta mainos virallinen tai miten vanha,
mutta luulen, että jotain ulinaa saattaa kuulua siitä, että trump potkaisee
obaman monttuun...

tavallaan hauskoja noin yli vedettynä 

näemmä kuukausia vanhoja:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsncbgMK4zM

[Kimmo Pirkkala]

Otannassa demokraatteja 10% enemmän kuin republikaaneja. Näinhän näitä kyselyitä on tehty koko ajan.

Tuohan on aivan oikein, jos myös äänestäjissä on demokraatteja 10% enemmän kuin republikaaneja.
Vaan onko niin?

[jmm]

Porukkaa joutuu linnaan pitkäksi aikaa...

John Podesta on sähköpostissa kehottanut hävittämään sähköpostit kongressin haasteen JÄLKEEN. Tämä täyttää tarkoituksellisuuden tunnusmerkit ja on vakava rikos jo itsessään.

WE HAVE A SMOKING GUN: John Podesta tells Cheryl Mills "we're going to have to dump all those emails" the day after subpoena. INTENT.

https://twitter.com/GunterGSharp/status/793484628870828032

Jos Trump valitaan, lähtee paljon porukkaa lusimaan.

Jos Clinton valitaan, hän tekee ennätyksen presidentillisissä armahduksissa.

[klassinen]

https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201610311046920348-clinton-fbi-november-surprise/

En halua uskoa tähän koska minulla on Unelma. Sen mukaan presidentti Trump on ollut vaalikampanjassaan vilpitön. Hän saa Mestareilta tarjouksen mutta kieltäytyy siitä ja moukaroi republikaanienemmistöisen kongressin avulla armotta maansa mätäpesäkkeitä. Mestarit eivät onnistu tapattamaan Trumpia ja käydään pitkä taistelu, Säälittävät vastaan Moraalittomat, Deplorables versus Immorals. Internet otetaan takaisin YK:lta ja Pepestä tehdään internetin kuningas. Mestarien valtarakenteet revitään hajalle ja vapauttajamme Donald Trumpin johdolla maailmassa alkaa ennennäkemätön Ihmisen Kultakausi.

[Kirjolohikäärme]

Otannassa demokraatteja 10% enemmän kuin republikaaneja. Näinhän näitä kyselyitä on tehty koko ajan.

Tuohan on aivan oikein, jos myös äänestäjissä on demokraatteja 10% enemmän kuin republikaaneja.
Vaan onko niin?

Viime vuosina demokraatiksi itsensä ilmoittavia on ollut 5-7% hujakoilla enemmän kuin republikaaniksi itsensä mieltäviä; ero on pienempi jos kysytään "kannatatko puoluetta vahvasti".  Näiden presidentinvaalien alla ero on ollut suurempi demokraattien hyväksi.

Jenkeillä kun ei syntyessä lyödä joka toiselle ihmiselle otsaan elefanttia ja joka toiselle aasia.  Puoluekannatus vaihtelee fiilisten mukaan.  Ei Suomessakaan poliittisissa kyselyissä haalita yhtä monta joogalentäjien puolueen kannattajaa kuin kokkaria ja suokustalaista. Kunkinhetkinen puoluemieltymys on vain yksi kyseltävä parametri muiden joukossa.

[Tiskirätti]

Niin kaipailen edelleen niitä faktoja.

Oleppa hyvä:

FBI Director James Comey's letter to Congress regarding an unexpected development in his agency's investigation of Hillary Clinton's private email server was brief and vague, creating a vacuum that has been filled by distorted claims — mostly from the campaign of Clinton's opponent, Donald Trump:

• Trump strung together a series of debunked claims about Clinton's use of a private server while secretary of State to conclude that "this is bigger than Watergate."

• Trump also repeated his unsupported claim that Clinton's "criminal action was willful, deliberate, intentional and purposeful." The FBI found no evidence that Clinton "intended to violate laws" on classified information.

• Mike Pence, Trump's running mate, claimed that Clinton "continues to refuse to turn over some 33,000 e-mails." But Clinton's non-work-related emails were deleted more than a year ago, so Clinton doesn't have them to turn over.

• Clinton claimed that the FBI letter to Congress was "sent to Republican members of the House" and was "only going originally to Republican members of the House." Both claims are false.

• Clinton's campaign chairman claimed the FBI review of the new emails "might not be about [Clinton's] server." But the FBI has said it is reviewing the emails that "appear to be pertinent to the investigation" of Clinton's "personal email server."

On Oct. 28, the FBI director sent a three-paragraph letter to Congress that said FBI investigators, during the course of an unrelated investigation, found "the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent" to its prior investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server as secretary of State. The letter said the FBI will review those emails "to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."

Comey wrote that "the FBI cannot yet assess whether this material may be significant" or how long the review will take.

Multiple news reports, citing anonymous law enforcement officials, said emails were found on a computer owned by Anthony Weiner, who is the estranged husband of Huma Abedin, a longtime Clinton aide and former deputy chief of staff at the State Department.

The news came more than three months after Comey announced on July 5 that the FBI had completed its investigation and recommended that no charges be brought against Clinton or her aides for mishandling classified information.

The FBI's review of potentially new evidence comes less than two weeks before Election Day. The lack of hard information and the timing of the FBI's announcement have created conditions that are ripe for distortions.

Watergate Comparison

At a rally in Manchester, N.H., on the day of the FBI director's surprising announcement, Trump claimed that "this is bigger than Watergate in my opinion," referring of course to the scandal that led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon and the convictions of numerous others.

But Trump's case is weak. He supports his conclusion by distorting the facts to fit his conspiracy theory, mostly by repeating already debunked claims about Clinton's emails.

Trump, Oct. 28: "But real change also means getting rid of the corruption in Washington, and again, maybe that's happened. Wow. We have a big day. No think of it, I won my first primary in New Hampshire and I am getting here and the news this morning is — this is bigger than Watergate. This is bigger than Watergate in my opinion. This is bigger than Watergate.

"Hillary bleached and deleted 33,000 e-mails after receiving a congressional subpoena. That alone to me — there were more serious things done, but how does it get much more? But that was so obvious. She gets the subpoena and she bleaches and deletes 33,000 e-mails. That to me — because it was so simple, you know? Not — it's not about the sale of the uranium that nobody knows what it means — I know what it means — to Russia. Then she talks to me about Russia. 20% of the uranium in our country to Russia.

"But you know, the deletion of 33,000 e-mails, boy, that just sort of is so out there, after receiving a subpoena from the United States government. She lied to Congress, she lied to the FBI, she made 13 phones disappear, some with a hammer. The Clinton crew gave more than $675,000 to the wife of the deputy director of the FBI and the man who was overseeing the investigation into Hillary's illegal server."

Trump conflates and distorts three separate issues to make his Watergate comparison. Let's take them in order.

"Hillary bleached and deleted 33,000 e-mails after receiving a congressional subpoena."

Trump is referring to 31,830 emails that Clinton's lawyers had deemed personal. These emails did not have to be turned over to the State Department, which in the summer of 2014 requested all work-related emails that the former secretary of state had in her possession. (See "A Guide to Clinton's Emails.")

The department's policy allows its employees to determine which emails are work-related and must be preserved. "Messages that are not records may be deleted when no longer needed," according to the State Department's Foreign Affairs Manual (5 FAM 443.5). (See "Trump on the Stump.")

That means Clinton was within her right to delete these emails, so that's the first thing to know.

Now, Trump is right that these emails were deleted about three weeks after Clinton received a subpoena on March 4 from a Republican-controlled House committee investigating the 2012 deaths of four Americans in Benghazi. However, there is no evidence that she knew that the emails were deleted after the subpoena was issued.

According to the FBI's investigative notes, Cheryl Mills, Clinton's former chief of staff, in December 2014 told Platte River Networks that Clinton had preserved her work-related emails and "no longer needed access to any of her e-mails older than 60 days." At that time, Mills instructed a PRN employee "to modify the e-mail retention policy" on Clinton's server "to reflect this change." That would automatically delete the old emails. But the PRN employee told the FBI that "he had an 'oh shit' moment" after learning about the subpoena sometime between March 25 and March 31, 2015, which is when he deleted Clinton's emails. Clinton told the FBI that she was not aware that PRN deleted her emails in late March 2015, and the FBI did not say when she learned that they were deleted. (See "The FBI Files on Clinton's Emails.")

PRN used a free software program called BleachBit to delete the emails. That's what Trump means when he says the emails were "bleached." Other times he has said that Clinton "used chemicals" to "acid wash or bleach" her emails. That's part of the deception, too. (See "Trump, Pence 'Acid Wash' Facts.")

"She made 13 phones disappear, some with a hammer."

It is true that the FBI said (on page it "identified 13 total mobile devices ... which potentially were used to send e-mails using Clinton's clintonemail.com e-mail addresses." But only eight of the 13 were used while Clinton was secretary of state, the FBI said, so Trump exaggerates the number of devices she had during her four years in office. (See "A Guide to Clinton's Emails.")

The FBI also quoted a Clinton aide (on page 9) as saying that he could recall on two occasions that he got rid of old mobile devices by breaking them in half or hitting them with a hammer.

Trump insinuates that there is something sinister about owning several mobile devices and destroying the old ones when they are replaced. But the FBI came to no such conclusion, and security experts interviewed by the technology website Wired said destroying old devices is a good way to erase data — if done properly.

Wired, Sept. 7: "Whether you're a Secretary of State with a phone full of classified documents or an average sext-sending citizen, data removal is a crucial security step before you let a device leave your control or recycle it. And security experts agree there's at least one surefire way to be certain that data is truly removed and unrecoverable: kill the hardware."

If anything, Wired said, Clinton's aides "should have wrecked them more thoroughly" than they did. The website said her staff should have used a "jackhammer" instead of a hammer, to ensure that data was destroyed and not just the mobile device.

"The Clinton crew gave more than $675,000 to the wife of the deputy director of the FBI."

Trump says the "Clinton crew," but he isn't talking about Clinton or anyone in Clinton's campaign. He is talking about Democratic Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a longtime friend and supporter of Bill and Hillary Clinton. A political action committee controlled by McAuliffe and the Virginia Democratic Party combined donated more than $675,000 to Dr. Jill McCabe, who unsuccessfully ran for a seat in the Virginia Senate in 2015.

McAuliffe's PAC, Common Good VA, made other large donations in 2015: $803,500 to state Senate candidate Jeremy McPike, who won his election, and $781,500 to Daniel Gecker, who lost. The big donations were part of an all-out effort by the Democratic governor to help his party gain control of the Senate in the November 2015 elections. That effort failed, and the makeup of the Senate remained unchanged with the Republicans holding a narrow 21 to 19 advantage.

Trump focuses on the donations to McCabe, because she is the wife of Andrew McCabe, who at the time of the donations was either head of the FBI field office in Washington, D.C., or assistant deputy director of the FBI. Andrew McCabe was not involved in the FBI investigation of Clinton's emails when his wife was running for office. He was promoted to deputy director in February 2016, and at that time he assumed "an oversight role in the investigation into Secretary Clinton's emails," according to a statement from an FBI spokesman.

There is no evidence that Clinton had any knowledge of the donations or that they were made to influence the FBI investigation of her handling of classified information. (See "Clinton's Connection to FBI Official.")

Trump assembles — or rather disassembles — these half-truths and innuendos to reach his shaky conclusion that "this is bigger than Watergate." That's his opinion, but at least one person who was involved in Watergate disagrees.

John Dean, who served as White House counsel to Nixon from 1970 to 1973. wrote an op-ed in The New York Times calling the Watergate comparison "nonsense."

"Only someone who knows nothing about the law, and the darkest moment of our recent political history, would see a parallel between Nixon's crimes and Mrs. Clinton's mistakes," Dean said, noting that "some four dozen Nixon aides and associates were convicted of or pleaded guilty to criminal misconduct, including me."

Trump on Clinton's Intent

Trump also has repeatedly claimed that Clinton's "criminal action was willful, deliberate, intentional and purposeful." But the FBI disagrees. Comey said the FBI's investigation didn't find evidence that Clinton "intended to violate laws" on classified information. And he said that "no charges are appropriate in this case."

Trump made the claim in Oct. 29 speeches in both Colorado and Phoenix.

At his July 5 press briefing on the FBI's investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server, Comey explained that the inquiry specifically concerned whether classified material had been mishandled "either intentionally or in a grossly negligent way" in violation of federal law or if classified information has been "knowingly remove[d]" from "appropriate systems or storage facilities."

Comey, who said there was evidence Clinton and her colleagues had been "extremely careless" in handling classified material, said that the FBI didn't find any evidence of an intent to violate such laws.

Comey, July 5: "Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information."

The FBI director went on to say that while there was evidence of "potential violations" of classified information statutes, "no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case" in this instance. Why? Comey specifically pointed to the issue of intent. He said that past cases that were prosecuted involved "clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information" combined with other factors, such as "vast quantities of materials exposed," adding that the FBI didn't see that in the Clinton case.

Comey, July 5: "Prosecutors necessarily weigh a number of factors before bringing charges. There are obvious considerations, like the strength of the evidence, especially regarding intent. Responsible decisions also consider the context of a person's actions, and how similar situations have been handled in the past.

"In looking back at our investigations into mishandling or removal of classified information, we cannot find a case that would support bringing criminal charges on these facts. All the cases prosecuted involved some combination of: clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information; or vast quantities of materials exposed in such a way as to support an inference of intentional misconduct; or indications of disloyalty to the United States; or efforts to obstruct justice. We do not see those things here."

In his campaign speeches, Trump went on to speculate that Clinton "set up an illegal server for the obvious purpose of shielding her criminal conduct from public disclosure and exposure." No such cover-up of any criminal conduct has been revealed.

The FBI "read all of the approximately 30,000 e-mails provided by Secretary Clinton to the State Department in December 2014," Comey said. And the bureau also found "several thousand work-related e-mails" that weren't in that batch.

Comey said that it was "not surprising" that the FBI found emails that Clinton hadn't given to the State Department. "Our assessment is that, like many e-mail users, Secretary Clinton periodically deleted e-mails or e-mails were purged from the system when devices were changed," he said. And, the FBI found no evidence of any kind of cover-up. Comey said the investigation "found no evidence that any of the additional work-related e-mails were intentionally deleted in an effort to conceal them."

Pence on Clinton's Deleted Emails

In an Oct. 30 interview on Fox News Sunday, Pence said that "Hillary Clinton continues to refuse to turn over some 33,000 e-mails." But, as we said earlier, Clinton's non-work-related emails were deleted more than a year ago, so Clinton doesn't have them to turn over.

As we have previously written, Clinton's office disclosed on March 10, 2015, that she gave the State Department 30,490 work-related emails on Dec. 5, 2014, and "chose not to keep" 31,830 emails she deemed "personal."

"We went through a thorough process to identify all of my work-related emails and deliver them to the State Department," Clinton said at a press conference on March 10, 2015. "At the end, I chose not to keep my private personal emails."

The 31,830 personal emails were deleted "sometime between March 25-31, 2015," according to the FBI notes of its investigation. As we said earlier, the emails were deleted by a PRN employee about three weeks after Clinton received a congressional subpoena on March 4, 2015.

So Clinton is not "continu[ing] to refuse to turn over some 33,000 e-mails," as Pence claimed. Because they were deleted by PRN, she doesn't have them to release.

Clinton's Partisan Implication

In a press conference on Oct. 28, Clinton claimed that the letter Comey sent that day to Congress was "sent to Republican members of the House." A few minutes later in that press conference, Clinton said that letter was "only going originally to Republican members of the House." Both claims are false.

The letter was addressed to Republican chairmen of eight House and Senate committees, but it was sent to the committees, not just those individuals. Listed at the bottom of Comey's letter are the ranking Democratic members of those committees, and, in fact, one of them issued a statement on Oct. 28 indicating that he had received the letter.

The press release from Democratic Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, said that he was issuing "the following statement after receiving a letter from the FBI explaining that it would review new emails related to its investigation of Secretary Clinton."

Cummings and Rep. John Conyers Jr., the Democratic ranking member of the House Committee on the Judiciary, wrote a joint letter to Comey and Attorney General Loretta Lynch, also dated Oct. 28, that said the FBI director had "sent a letter to eight Congressional Committees."

The Clinton campaign told PolitiFact.com that she had misspoken.

Not About Clinton?

On CNN's State of the Union, John Podesta, Clinton's campaign chairman, claimed the FBI decision to review a new batch of emails "might not be about [Clinton's] server," citing reports based on anonymous sources.

Podesta, Oct. 30: "So far there's no charge of wrongdoing. There's no charge even that Hillary — and the reporting that backs it up coming from anonymous law enforcement sources indicates it might not be about her server, it may not be about her at all."

Podesta is right that there's no charge of wrongdoing. But is it true that the latest FBI review "might not be about [Clinton's] server"? We asked the Clinton campaign what Podesta meant. But we did not get a response.

We don't know if the FBI review isn't about Clinton's server, but neither does Podesta.

Here is what we know: The FBI director's statement said investigators during the course of an unrelated investigation found "the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation." By investigation, Comey said he means "the investigation of former Secretary Clinton's personal email server."

The FBI does not know yet if the emails are pertinent, and that is the point that Podesta and the campaign have stressed.

However, as we said earlier, news reports indicate that the emails were found on a computer owned by Weiner, the former congressman and estranged husband of Abedin. When she was interviewed by the FBI, Abedin told investigators (page 86) that she had an email account on Clinton's private server — [email protected] — and that she "routinely forwarded emails from her state.gov account to either her clintonemail.com or her yahoo.com account so she could print them." That would explain how the FBI came to discover potential classified information on Weiner's computer.

NBC News' Pete Williams reported that he was told by law enforcement that "these are not emails from Hillary Clinton," and that may explain Podesta's comment. But Williams did not say that the latest FBI review "might not be about [Clinton's] server."

Also, The New York Times reported that "Some of Ms. Abedin's emails passed through Mrs. Clinton's private server," citing unnamed law enforcement officials.

http://www.wcsh6.com/news/politics/national-politics/fact-check-comeys-vague-letter-sparks-partisan-distortions/345713382

Siinäpä sitä faktaa. Lyhyesti: kuten loputtomasti on jo koitettu kaltaisillesi syvissä rämeissä kahlaaville tontuille valaista, aikaisemmissa Clintonin sähköpostien tutkimuksissa ei ole paljastunut perusteita syytteille ja viimeisimmästä Weiner-jupakasta emme yksinkertaisesti tiedä. Piste.

Alahan sitten taas tuttuun tyyliisi sepitellä niitä 'musta tuntuu'-faktojasi ja Nixonilla maustettuja ajatuskuperkeikkojasi.

[niemi2]

FBI otti suuren roolin USA:n presidentinvaalissa

[....]

FBI:n uudet tutkimukset liittyvät Hillary Clintonin avustajan Huma Abedinin sähköposteihin. Abedinin sähköpostit löytyivät tämän entisen aviomiehen Anthony Weinerin kannettavasta tietokoneesta. Weiner ja Abedin erosivat äskettäin Weinerin jäätyä kiinni seksististen viestien ja kuvien lähettelystä alaikäiselle tytölle. Viranomaiset olivat varsinaisesti tutkimassa Weinerin toimintaa.

FBI ei ole kehottanut Weineriä lapsipornoiluun. Yhtä vähän FBI kehotti Hillrya käyttämään yksityistä sähköpostia.

FBI joutuu tutkimaan epäiltyjä rikoksia.

Eurooppalaisesta näkökulmasta on vaikea ymmärtää FBI:n ilmoituksen ajoitusta, jos Hillary Clintonin osalta ei pystytä kertomaan mitään uutta olennaista tietoa hänen sähköposteistaan. Pelkkä tieto tutkinnasta vaikuttaa vahvasti vaalien loppusuoran tilanteeseen. Clinton itse onkin vaatinut liittovaltion poliisia julkistamaan kaikki asiaan liittyvät tiedot. Myös oikeusministeriö oli varoittanut Comeya, ettei tämän tulisi julkistaa tietoa Clinton-sähköpostien uudesta tutkinnasta juuri presidentinvaalien alla. Comey päätti kuitenkin toimia vastoin esimiestensä ohjetta.

Hillary, Weiner ja Abedin ovat vaikuttaneet tutkinnan aikatauluihin ja osallistuneet asioiden selvittämiseen.

Tutkinta olisi voinut valmistua viime keväänä, vuosi sitten tai pari vuotta sitten, mutta Hillary ja Abedin ovat olleet haluttomia edistämään tutkintaa.

Hillary ja Abedin voivat edelleenkin julkaista kaikki tiedot ja sähköpostit milloin vaan. Mikään ei estä julkaisemasta Abedinin sähköposteja.

Senaatin demokraattien johtaja Harry Reid syytti sunnuntaina FBI:n johtajaa Comeya niin kutsutun Hatch Actin rikkomisesta. Sen mukaan hallinnon viranomaiset eivät saa käyttää asemaansa vaaleihin vaikuttamiseksi. Reid väittää myös, että FBI:n johtaja Comey on jättänyt julkistamatta tiedot tiiviistä yhteydenpidosta Venäjän hallituksen, Donald Trumpin ja tämän keskeisten neuvonantajien välillä. Reid kertoo vaatineensa julkaisemaan nuo tiedot jo kuukausia sitten.

Harry Reid olisi voinut vaatia Hillaryn sähköposteja julkaistavaksi jo kuukausia sitten, mutta ei vaatinut.

Reid voisi syyttää Weineriä siitä, että lapsipornoili juuri ennen vaaleja ja joku teki ilmoituksen poliisille.

Viranomaiset on jo ilmoittaneet ettei Trumpilla ole yhteyksiä Venäjän hallitukseen, joten sivuraiteelle ohjaaminen on sikäli turhaa.

[Valli]

Lieneeköhän totta?

"Michelle Obama Deletes Hillary Clinton From Twitter
When Hillary goes low, Michelle goes BYE!

Posted on November 1, 2016 by Baxter Dmitry in News, US

Michelle Obama deleted Hillary Clinton from both of her Twitter accounts as news broke that Clinton is under two different FBI investigations

Michelle Obama has scrubbed all references to Hillary Clinton from both of her Twitter accounts as news breaks that Clinton is under two different FBI investigations involving four FBI offices.

The @FLOTUS account has been wiped clean of all traces of Hillary, and @MichelleObama, a verified page with almost six million followers, has been scrubbed all the way back to 2013." ote

http://yournewswire.com/michelle-obama-deletes-hillary-clinton-twitter/