Menettääkö Ranska suhteita ex-siirtomaihin?

[stefani]

Tunnelmia Afrikasta: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVOwR4kfVfQ "Chadians Want France Out Of Their Country After French Soldier Took Out A Local" (African Diaspora News Channel)

Mitä yhteistä on mailla Mali, Chad, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger ja Gabon? Vastaus on, että ne ovat kaikki entisiä Ranskan siirtomaita Afrikassa, ja että niissä kaikissa on tapahtunut sotilasvallankaappaus vuosien 2021 - 2023 aikana. Entisillä siviilihallinnoilla oli ollut hyvät välit Ranskaan, mutta uusilla sotilashallinnoilla välit ovat vaihtelevammat. Afrikassa juntat ovat nauttineet kansansuosiota.

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/start-here/2023/9/7/whats-behind-the-wave-of-coups-in-africa-start-here (video-linkki) "What's behind the wave of coups in Africa? | Start Here"

Vallankaappausten motiivit ovat ehkä talouteen ja luonnonvaroihin liittyviä:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6EZibVMsIc "Niger Raises Uranium Price From €0.80/kg to €200/kg" (The New Africa Channel)

Viime vuosien aikana uraanin markkinahinta maailmalla on ollut jossain 50 - 150 $/kg suuruusluokassa. Nigerillä oli kuitenkin ollut Ranskan kanssa sopimus, että Niger oli myynyt Ranskalle uraania erikoishalvalla 0.8 €/kg hinnalla. Nigerin junta lopetti alennusmyynnin, ja nosti uraanin hinnan asiallisempaan arvoon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_LpRxYl5wg "Mali: Give us our mineral resources back - Assimi Goita demand" (UncutAfrica Live)

Mali has passed a new mining code allowing the state to take up to 30 percent stakes in new mineral projects and collect more revenues from the vital industry. Junta leader Assimi Goita has signed the code into law on Monday and his office announced on social media on Tuesday.

Mali is one of Africa's leading gold producers and their mining sector is dominated by foreign companies, including the Canadian firms Barrick Gold and B2Gold, Australia's Resolute Mining and the British Hummingbird Resources.

Guinean vallankaappauksessa presidentiksi tullut Mamady Doumbouya on selittänyt, että hän pyrkii siirtämään raaka-aineiden käsittelyä Guineaan, jotta maa veisi muutakin kuin vain mahdollisimman käsittelemättömiä raaka-aineita. Tavoite on siis Guinean näkökulmasta positiivinen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOCxqz05g2w "Guinea: Mining companies ordered to process bauxite on site" (africanews)

https://african.business/2023/02/energy-resources/guinea-junta-likely-to-allow-business-as-usual-in-mining-sector-despite-nationalist-posturing

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Junta leader Mamady Doumbouya is seeking to change this dynamic. Eye-catchingly for many Guineans who feel they have been robbed of their country's riches for decades, he has repeatedly declared that the mining sector will henceforward be in the "interest of Guinea".

This has entailed a series of new regulations that have startled investors. Crucially, Doumbouya has ruled with an iron fist at Simandou, refusing to allow companies to progress with the project until joint venture terms have been agreed and financing and profits distributed adequately and fairly for Guinea.

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It is not just Simandou that has been affected by a slew of new demands from the ruling junta. In April 2022, the junta ordered mining companies to develop local refineries for bauxite. It mandated that companies must produce a clear timetable for constructing refineries by the end of May that year or face severe consequences.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zNINelIfqg "Why France is the big loser in Africa after coups in Gabon & Niger? | World at War" (WION)

On the face of it, Western Africa has been struck with a coup epidemic. As just five weeks after the military junta captured power in Niger, the military in Gabon deposed President Ali Bongo Ondimba immediately after he again won the elections. But make no mistake about this. What is being witnessed in these African nations is not just a coup epidemic.

What is unfolding is a new scramble for Africa, where the old colonialist power France is being shunted out. And new players, namely Russia and China are entering the realm in a very big way.

Venäjällä on ollut oma osuutensa tässä kaikessa:

https://www.dw.com/en/was-russia-behind-the-coup-in-mali/a-54705282

Was Russia behind the coup in Mali?

In the wake of Mali's political crisis, there are reports suggesting that the junta leaders were trained in Russia and have ties with the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the United States has suspended military ties with Mali.

Local media aBamako.com reported that the junta leaders, who forced President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK) to step down, were in Russia on a training program organized by Russian Armed Forces ahead of the military coup.

Colonel Malick Diaw and Sadio Camara, believed to be the chief architects of the August 18 coup d'etat, spent a year in Russia at the Higher Military College in Moscow.

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"It's difficult for me to judge how reliable this information is because Moscow has said nothing about it," Russian expert Irina Filatova, Research Professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told DW. She noted that the Kremlin and Mali have established strong ties and Russia has been supplying some military equipment to Mali.

IBK, as they call him in Mali, is unpopular in his country, but has been an essential ally for the West — particularly France — in the fight against jihadis in the Sahel.

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Burkina Faso on suosinut venäläistä kaivosfirmaa:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-faso-denies-favouring-russias-nordgold-over-gold-mine-permit-2023-02-06/

Burkina Faso denies favouring Russia's Nordgold over gold mine permit

APE TOWN, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Burkina Faso did not award a mining permit to Nordgold because it is a Russian company, its mines minister told Reuters on Sunday, rebuffing Western concerns that the ruling junta is seeking closer ties with Moscow.

"We didn't give the permit to Nordgold because it is a Russian company, far from it," Simon-Pierre Boussim told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.

"We do not give permits to people because they are from Russia, or from the United States... we give permits to companies that pay taxes and respect our laws."

The government - which took power in September in the country's second coup in just eight months - granted a gold mining permit to Nordgold in December.

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Burkina Faso has denied paying Russian mercenaries by giving them the rights to a mine, but has not formally confirmed or denied the allegation that it has made an agreement with Wagner.

Burkina Faso's neighbour Mali hired Wagner last year to help it fight insurgents.

The prospect of the group expanding its presence in Africa has troubled France and the United States, who say it exploits mineral resources and commits human rights abuses in countries where it operates.

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Venäjän informaatiokampanja oli ehkä vaikuttanut vallankaappauksen suosioon Nigerissä:

https://www.dw.com/en/niger-russia-sahel/a-66494597

Niger coup: What is Russia's role?

The coup in Niger has people asking about potential links to Russia. Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have turned to the Kremlin after severing ties with France. Is Moscow behind Niger's coup?

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"There really isn't a lot of evidence that Russia was behind the coup," Washington-based Wagner expert Elena Pokalova told DW.

Instead, it appears the trigger for the coup was personal ambition. Bazoum had wanted to replace General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of the elite Presidential Guard. But after deposing his boss, Tchiani has now proclaimed himself the head of the new military junta.

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Did Russian disinformation help trigger the Niger coup?

It's well known that Russia runs sophisticated digital disinformation campaigns in Africa, including in Niger, a key Western ally and home to large US and French bases —  although since the coup, junta leaders have revoked military cooperation agreements with France. Campaigns typically agitate against France and the United States, accusing them of colonialism and advocating for a broader revolution across the Sahel, a belt of semiarid land stretching across Africa just below the Sahara Desert.

According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a US Department of Defense institution, pro-Russia Telegram channels suggested Niger as a future target following the Burkina Faso coup in 2022.

"Disinformation networks connected to the Wagner Group, furthermore, have twice sought to spark rumors of a coup in Niger, including through what appears to have been a carefully orchestrated online scheme coinciding with a trip abroad by President Bazoum in February 2023," said a report in late July.

But while Western intelligence is examining whether Russia launched targeted campaigns in the run-up to the coup, "no evidence has been found so far," wrote Spain's El Pais newspaper, citing an intelligence officer from a European country.

[Jaska Pankkaaja]

Muistelen että Venezuelan öljykin oli hyvän hintaista, amerikkalaisille. Ja miten sitten kävikään..

[JoKaGO]

Muistelen että Venezuelan öljykin oli hyvän hintaista, amerikkalaisille. Ja miten sitten kävikään..

No juuri näin! Eikö patongin tallaajat tajua, että maksamalla 80 senttiä kilolta tuotteesta, jonka oikea kilohinta on 50$, ei saa kavereita raaka-ainetuottajista 

0,8$:n ja 50$:n välillä olisi varmasti ollut jokin kompromissin mahdollistava hinta niin, että kaveruus olisi säilynyt ...

[artti]

Seuraavassa Euroopan unionin ministerikokouksessa, kun Ranskan ministeri hyvesignaloi niin Perussuomalainen ministeri kuittaa, että: älä nyt viitsi senkin kolonialisti!