2009-07-11 Newsweek: Why Fears Of A Muslim Takeover Are All Wrong

[Miniluv]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/206230/page/1

Ote:

Why Fears Of A Muslim Takeover Are All Wrong

But all this obscures a simple fact: the rise of a Eurabia is predicated on limited and dubious evidence. A much-cited 2004 study from the U.S. National Intelligence Council outlines a number of possible scenarios. Its most aggressive is that the number of Muslims in Europe could increase from roughly 20 million today—about 5 percent of the population—to 38 million by 2025. But that projection turns out to be attributed to "diplomatic and media reporting as well as government, academic, and other sources." In other words, it's all speculation based on speculation—and even if it's accurate, it would still mean the number of Muslims will represent just 8 percent of the European population, estimated by the EU to be 470 million in 2025. Indeed, if there is a surge ahead, its scale looks overstated. "There is a quite deliberate exaggeration, as has often been pointed out—but the figures are still being cited," says Jytte Klausen, an authority on Islam in Europe at Boston's Brandeis University.

Coming up with a reasonable estimate for the percentage of Muslims now living in Europe, let alone making projections for the future, is a virtually impossible task. The number of illegal immigrants is unknown and, in a sign of the sensitivity of the issue, many countries including France and Germany do not even tally census data on the religion of legal residents. It is true that the Muslim minority is destined to grow steadily in Europe, especially given the youthful profile of today's immigrants. Fertility rates remain higher among Muslim immigrants than among other Europeans, and Muslims may continue to arrive in Europe in large numbers. But the alarmists assume that past patterns are sure to hold. "The worst of the scaremongering is based on the assumption that current behavior will continue," says Grace Davie, an expert on Europe and Islam at the University of Exeter in Britain.

For the number of Muslims to outnumber non-Muslims by midcentury, it would require either breeding on a scale rarely seen in history or for immigration to continue at a pace that's now politically unacceptable. More likely, new controls will slow Muslim immigration. The birthrate for Muslim immigrants is also likely to continue to decline, as it has tended to do, with greater affluence and better health care. There is no Europewide data available, but one study says fertility rates among Turkish-born women in the Netherlands fell from 3.2 in 1990 to 1.9 in 2005, barely above the figure for native-born Dutch. Over the same period, the equivalent figure for Moroccan-born women in the Netherlands dropped from 4.9 to 2.9. Also, fertility rates are edging upward in some Northern European countries, which would offset some of the Muslim growth. Bottom line: given the number of variables, demographers are loath to make predictions about the number of Muslims in Europe in the years to come. "You would almost have to make it up," says Carl Haub, the senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau in Washington. And the idea of a Muslim majority any time soon? "Absolutely absurd."

Moreover, the myth of Eurabia implies the existence of a united Islam, a bloc capable of collective and potentially dangerous action. The truth is that there are no powerful Muslim political movements in Europe, either continentwide or at the national level, and the divisions that separate Muslims worldwide, most obviously between Sunnis and Shiites, are apparent in Europe as well. Each major nation in Europe has drawn Muslim immigrants from distinct regions of the Islamic world, often former colonies, with different traditions and outlooks. A British Muslim from Pakistan would struggle to communicate with a French Muslim from Algeria. A second-generation Muslim from Turkey living in Germany will have little in common with a newly arrived Moroccan across the border in Belgium. Sharp differences exist even within national frontiers. In Germany, more than one in 10 Muslims are Alawites, who aren't even recognized as coreligionists by the more orthodox.

In areas of personal morality, attitudes vary markedly, too. One recent Gallup poll found that more than 30 percent of French Muslims were ready to accept homosexuality, compared with zero in Britain. Almost half of French Muslims believed sex between unmarried people was morally acceptable, compared with 27 percent of German Muslims. And violent zealotry is for the tiny minority: polls repeatedly reaffirm that Muslims overwhelmingly disapprove of terrorism. In some countries, the mood is broadly secular. "The majority of Muslims in France are, in fact, decoupled from their religion. They just blend into an amorphous mass of brown or black people," says Ali Allawi, the former Iraqi defense minister and author of the The Crisis of Islamic Civilization. Jochen Hippler, a German political scientist at the University of Duisburg-Essen, says he has had young Turks come up to him to ask what Islam is all about. "They have lost any connection with the religion of their parents and grandparents," he says. A recent government survey showed that 40 percent of Iranians living in Germany identified themselves as having no religion, as did 23 percent of North Africans. In the Netherlands, the proportion of Muslims who regularly attend the mosque—27 percent—is lower than the proportion of Protestants who go to church.

[Nikopol]

8% väestöstä tarkoittaa kuitenkin että suurissa, merkittävissä kaupungeissa muslimien osuus on mitä vain 20% ja 80% väliltä. Ei paljon vaikuta vaikka Lapin ja Oulun lääneissä ei olisi yhtään muslimia, jos Helsingissä kouluikäisten määrässä ylitetään kantaväestö.

Väite Eurabian mahdottomuudesta on lievästi sanottuna ennenaikainen.

[M.]

Tarjoaisikohan Libanonin sisällissotaan johtanut kehitys minkäänlaista analogiaa tässä suhteessa? Tarkoitan, että kuinka suuria muutoksia Libanonin demografiassa tapahtui ennen sisällissodan alkamista (shia-muslimien maahanmuutto ja nopea lisääntyminen kristittyihin ja sunneihin verrattuna)?

[hyperbeli]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/206230/page/1

Ote:

But the alarmists assume that past patterns are sure to hold. "The worst of the scaremongering is based on the assumption that current behavior will continue," says Grace Davie, an expert on Europe and Islam at the University of Exeter in Britain.

For the number of Muslims to outnumber non-Muslims by midcentury, it would require either breeding on a scale rarely seen in history or for immigration to continue at a pace that's now politically unacceptable. More likely, new controls will slow Muslim immigration.

On ihan oikein tilastojen avulla havainnollistaa, että mikä on lopputulos jos nykyinen politiikka pidetään. Grace Davie on aivan oikeassa siinä, että nykyiseen politiikkaan tulee lähiaikoina valtava muutos, mutta sitä ei tule, ellei ole ihmisiä, jotka ovat valmiita osoittamaan (tilastoilla), että mihin joudumme mikäli muutosta ei tapahdu.

Davie sekoittaa tässä tieteellisen (trendiä tutkivan) lähestymistavan poliittiseen (trendiä luovaan) lähestymistapaan.

Loput artikkelista on kertakaikkiaan hyviä uutisia. Tilastot muslimien sopeutumisesta ovat itseasiassa niin hyviä, että tämä netsi taitaa jättää valvontavastuunsa tältä yöltä ja sallia itselleen unta palloon. Onhan meillä näemmä varaa!

[Marko]

Artikkeli tuntuu hieman yksinkertaistavan Euroopan ongelmia.
Ok, Eurabia ja muslimien väestöenemmistö eivät ehkä toteudu vuosikymmeniin, mutta yhteiskunnalliset ongelmat alkavat jo paljon aiemmin. Suhteellisen pienelläkin väkimäärällä pystytään ghettouttamaan kaupunginosia, ylikuormittamaan hyvinvointivaltio ja tuottamaan pelon ilmapiiri.

Artikkelissa esitetään kuinka muslimimamuilla on kaikilla erilainen kulttuuritausta eikä oikein mitään yhteistä ja siten he eivät voi olla kollektiivinen uhka.
Pötyä, han-eurooppalaisetkin tulevat monista eri valtioista, eri kulttuureista ja puhuvat eri kieliä, silti valtaosaa yhdistää länsimaisen yhteiskunnan periaatteiden arvostus. Samalla tavalla olettaisin valtaosaa muslimeista yhdistävän islamin, joka uskonnon ohella kattaa ohjeet niin arkisiin toimiin kuin lainsäädäntöön.
Aitoja radikaaleja muslimejakin tarvitaan vain kourallinen rauhanomaisen valtaosan joukkoon ongelmien synnyttämiseksi. Riittää, että pieni porukka tekee tuhojaan, jos valtaosa ummistaa silmänsä ja antaa vähintään hiljaisen tukensa.

[DoneDeal]

Ok, Eurabia ja muslimien väestöenemmistö eivät ehkä toteudu vuosikymmeniin, mutta yhteiskunnalliset ongelmat alkavat jo paljon aiemmin. Suhteellisen pienelläkin väkimäärällä pystytään ghettouttamaan kaupunginosia, ylikuormittamaan hyvinvointivaltio ja tuottamaan pelon ilmapiiri.

Ja mitä lähemmäksi pohjakosketus tulee, sitä vieraammaksi käy urbaanille sivistysläntiselle meno(rappio siis vain kiihtyy loppua kohti), kun taas muslimimekastajat ovat kuin kotonaan ja ponnistavat vain ylöspäin.

[M.K.Korpela]

Voi paska .. Klausenin ehdin jo melkein unohtaa. Klausen on yksi NW:n haastatelluista.

Why Fears Of A Muslim Takeover Are All Wrong

Kim Møllerillä on Uriaspostenissa useita avauksia Jytte Klausenista. Klausen on eräs pahimpia apologisteja Tanskassa , ja luennoi nykyään Brandeis-yliopistossa rapakon takana. Tässä Klausenin anteeksi-anteeksi Salonissa sarjakuvajupakan ajoilta.

Tässä on Kimin arkisto sivu 1 , sivu 2 Klausenin edesottamuksista.

EDIT: Jytte Klausen, an authority on Islam in Europe at Boston's Brandeis University.

Klausen , auktoriteetti Islamista Euroopassa ... no voi paska.

[M.K.Korpela]

Ihan selkeitä p-puheita ovat seuraavat :

For the number of Muslims to outnumber non-Muslims by midcentury

20-30 % osuudet riittävät varsin mainiosti epästabiiliin tilaan. Ne saavutetaan tai on jo saavutettu monissa suurkaupungeissa.

it would require either breeding on a scale rarely seen in history

There's a catch : tätä yrittävät monikulttuuristit täysillä , antamalla uskonnollisille muslimeille etusijan ja siten edistäen suurperheiden elämäntapaa.

immigration to continue at a pace that's now politically unacceptable.

Lakimiesarmeija Demla(UK) , Demla(SWE) ja Demla(FIN) jne työskentelevät tälle päämäärälle.

Kaikki vain 2 rivillä ilmaistuna. Täytyy antaa kirjoittajalle tunnustus : informaatiotiheys on loistava tai siis paremminkin tosi tiukkaa pask@@.

(RIVI 1)For the number of Muslims to outnumber non-Muslims by midcentury, it would require either breeding on a scale (RIVI 2)rarely seen in history or for immigration to continue at a pace that's now politically unacceptable.

[Phantasticum]

Niinpä niin. Minua ei sinänsä vaivaisi itse muslimien, islamin uskoa tunnustavien ihmisten olemassaolo Euroopassa, vaikka heitä olisi tulevaisuudessa hiukan enemmänkin. Eivät Suomen tataaritkaan ole halunneet tai vaatineet uskontonsa vuoksi yhtään mitään erityiskohtelua tai -oikeuksia. Tietääkseni.

Sen sijaan minua vaivaa suuresti se, että jo nyt, vielä selkeä vähemmistö saa jatkuvasti muutettua Eurooppaa, eurooppalaista kulttuuria ja arvomaailmaa haluamaansa suuntaan. Jos muslimeja on Iso-Britanniassa alle 5 % ja tästä huolimatta heille suunnitellaan omaa poliisia, millaiseksi Iso-Britannia muuttuu, kun tämä vähemmistö kasvaa.

Miten joku voi olla niin naiivi ja kuvitella, että jos tämä vähemmistö haluaa tänä päivänä tällaista ja saa haluamansa, tämä vähemmistö tulevaisuudessa luopuisi saamistaan erityisoikeuksista - erityisesti, jos heitä on entistä enemmän. Koska mikään ei tällä hetkellä näytä viittaavan siihen, että tämä vähemmistö (toistaiseksi) olisi millään lailla halukas omaksumaan eurooppalaista arvomaailmaa ja elämäntapaa, minulle tämä on riittävän hyvä syy vastustaa laajamittaista muslimien maahanmuuttoa Eurooppaan.

[Miniluv]

...lisää samaa...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/26/radicalisation-european-muslims

Fears of an Islamic revolt in Europe begin to fade

Five years ago bombings and riots fuelled anxiety that Europe's Muslims were on the verge of mass radicalisation. Those predictions have not been borne out.

A new poll by Gallup, one of the most comprehensive to date, shows that the feared mass radicalisation of the EU's 20-odd million Muslims has not taken place. Asked if violent attacks on civilians could be justified, 82% of French Muslims and 91% of German Muslims said no. The number who said violence could be used in a "noble cause" was broadly in line with the general population. Crucially, responses were not determined by religious practice - with no difference between devout worshippers and those for whom "religion [was] not important".

"We estimate about 10% of our Islamic population are in a dynamic of rejection of the west and Europe, 10% are more European than the Europeans, and about 80% are in the middle, just trying to get by," said Alain Bauer, a criminologist and security adviser to President Nicolas Sarkozy. "The concern is less home-grown or imported terrorists, but states such as Iran," he said.

This is the view of Judith Sluiter, of the National Co-ordinator for Counterterrorism agency, who adds: "The appeal of the radicals is declining. In the Moroccan community there is growing resistance to Islamic rejection [of Dutch society]."

The Dutch AIVD intelligence service recently reported that among the country's other main Muslim immigrant community, from Turkey, "resistance to radical Islamic ideologies remains strong ... In the short and medium term, there is no danger these [extreme] religious ideas will find many receptive ears in the Dutch Turkish community".

Finally, there is a question of what integration means. The recent Gallup poll found European Muslim immigrants tend to stress social and economic questions - housing, jobs, access to education - as markers of integration, whereas the so-called "host communities" tend to stress morals and customs, such as attitudes to homosexuality, sex before marriage or pornography.

Despite frequent and heavily publicised rows, surveys have found that only a minority of European Muslim women are veiled, and the numbers are probably dropping. The German data suggests that, whereas a quarter of first-generation immigrant women wear a headscarf, only 18% of their daughters do.

Such processes are uneven. Caldwell cites figures that show "only 8% of Turkish men who grow up in Germany marry German women and only 3% of Turkish women who grow up in Germany marry German men".

But there are also more subtle ways that integration can work. Polls, for example, have found that Muslim communities are profoundly influenced by their countries of residence. So in France, where 45% of people said in a survey that adultery is morally acceptable, so did a high proportion of local Muslims. In Germany, where 73% of the population is opposed to capital punishment, the view was shared by exactly the same percentage of local Muslims. In Britain, where there is greater popular hostility to pornography, this is mirrored in the British Muslim community.

[M.]

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/027072.php

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