Flynn ilmiö 2100 luvulle ja dysgenics kehitys maittain

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

There is a new expert survey out which, amongst other things, queries the world's top psychometrics experts on the future of the FLynn effect (Flynn + Lynn – clever).

The two most important reasons for the end of the FLynn effect in the West are regarded to be "low intelligent more children" (henceforth, "dysgenics") and migration.

Here is my take (assuming no human genetic editing, neural augs, etc

East Asia – +0. Have no idea where the high end estimates come from – Japan and Korea are already fully developed and have maxed out their FLynn potential, while China's indicators on education, nutrition, and social well-being – as is typical in Communist countries – are considerably ahead of its GDP per capita. And the former are more important for IQ than pure wealth. I suspect any further marginal FLynn gains will be canceled out by dysgenics, which have been acting on China since the 1960s (Wang et al., 2016).

India – +10. Currently around 80 according to both IQ tests and PISA. I suspect India's average genotypic IQ is ~95, though strongly differentiated by caste. However, the dysgenics trend seems to be strong, acting via both region (dirt poor and highly illiterate Bihar is the most fertile, while Kerala with its competent governance and historical achievements in mathematics is the least fertile) and caste (scheduled castes have highest fertility, while the Brahmin share of the population is declining since at least the 1930s).

Africa – +10. Currently around 70-75, suspect it "should be" 85-90, but doubt Africa will actually develop enough socio-economically to fully max out its potential FLynn effect.

Latin America – -3. Few of these countries can be described as truly Third World, especially the more significant ones, and nutrition is quite adequate (e.g. Brazil consumes as much meat per capita as Germany). As such, I suspect most of its FLynn gains have already been actualized! Meanwhile, dysgenic trends amongst the elites are strong, while the lower IQ, while the indigenous underclass continues to expand rapidly.

Arab/Muslim countries – -3. A lot really depends on whether they start to seriously clamp down on first cousin marriages, which could raise IQs by as much as 10 points. A few like Tajikistan are taking this seriously, but most are not, and first cousin marriages remain stubbornly high. As such, Arab and Muslim IQs will probably decline due to dysgenics and brain drain arising from future geopolitical convulsions (according to some calculations, solar is already reaching cost parity with fossil fuels; what happens when countries like Saudi Arabia lose their oil rents?).

Australia – +0. Agree with the FLynn experts – any modest dysgenics are cancelled out by their cognitively elitist immigration policy.

Eastern Europe – -3. Less likely to be inundated with Third World immigrants, at least so long as Germany doesn't become a total dump, but East-Central Europe has already maxed out Flynn, continues to experience brain drain, and Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria in particular have a Gypsy problem. Russia and Ukraine might gain a couple of points if, as expected, their Soviet-legacy alcoholization epidemics continue to recede; but Russia, in particular, has immigration issues of its own (Central Asia = Mexico), while Ukraine is bleeding out brains and will in all likelihood long continue to do so. Finally, as in Western Europe, fertility patterns are dysgenic in all these countries.

Israel – -5. Will probably plummet as duller nationalists and the religious continue outbreeding seculars, plus brain drain.

Canada – -3. Cognitively elite immigration policy like Australia, but annul their own efforts by importing Somali refugees.

Scandinavia – -4. Sweden Yes!

West-Middle Europe – -4. Strong dysgenics, and huge IQ hit from immigration, but at least for now gets many of the more intelligent Mediterranean Europeans.

West in general – -4.

Southern Europe – -6. Triple whammy from Third World immigration, brain drain to northern Europe, and possibly the most strongly dysgenic fertility patterns in the world.

USA – -3. Latin America will of course continue exerting downwards pressure, but dysgenics amongst White Americans is relatively mild, it attracts the world's cognitive crème de la crème, the Hispanic baby boom has subsided following the Great Recession, and Trump is promising a Big Beautiful Wall. So I am considerably more optimistic about the US than most. Furthermore, if Europe truly goes belly up, the US may even get a big cognitive boost from the richer Europeans fleeing the fruits of their earlier political choices.

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-flynn-effect-to-2100/

Flynnin ilmiö tarkoittaa älykkyyttä mitattaessa esiintyvää pitkän aikavälin kehitystä, jossa tulosten keskiarvo väestötasolla nousee ajan myötä. Havainto on nimetty uusiseelantilaisen filosofin ja älykkyystutkijan James R. Flynnin mukaan.

Ilmiön selitysyrityksiä ovat olleet muun muassa pienempi perhekoko, tehokkaampi koulutus, ravinnon kehittyminen, elinympäristön monimutkaistuminen ja heteroosi eli alleelien sekoittumisen tuomat hyödyt yksilönkehityksessä. Havainto saattaa ihmetyttää varsinkin ihmisiä, jotka uskovat älykkyystestien mittaavan ihmisyksilön absoluuttista, muuttumatonta älykkyyttä, koska se tarkoittaisi, että uudet sukupolvet ovat aina aiempia älykkäämpiä. Flynn itse ei usko tähän.

Vuonna 2001 Flynn ja ekonomi William T. Dickens esittivät mekanismin, jolla ympäristötekijöiden vaikutus älykkyysosamäärään voisi korostua takaisinkytkennän kautta artikkelissa "Heritability estimates versus large environmental effects: The IQ paradox resolved", joka julkaistiin Psychological Review -lehdessä.[1]

Vuonna 2005 Colom ryhmineen esitti aineistoa, jossa espanjalaisten lasten älykkyysosamäärä kasvoi sitä enemmän mitä enemmän heidän ravintonsa parani.[2]

Koulutuksen ja Flynnin ilmiön suhdetta puolestaan ovat tutkineet viime aikoina esimerkiksi Teasdale ja Owen (2005). He havaitsivat, että 500 000 tanskalaisen miehen ÄO-testauksissa vuosien 1959 ja 2004 välissä oli nousua 1990-luvun loppua kohti ja sitten lasku 1990-lukua edeltäneelle tasolle. He arvelivat, että tätä kehitystä edesauttoi samaan aikaan tapahtunut opiskelijamäärien väheneminen 16–18-vuotiaille tarkoitetuissa kolmivuotisissa edistyneemmän tason koulutusohjelmissa.[3]

https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynnin_ilmi%C3%B6

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Olen samaa mieltä muista, mutta eri mieltä Israelin suhteen. Ultra-ortodoksit Israelissa on pitkälti eurooppalaista perimää ja omaa korkeimman syntyvyyden, uskoisin, että heillä on myös keskiarvoa korkeampi IQ, vaikka he noin muuten ovatkin hyödyttömiä maalle. Israelissa siinä mielessä syntyvyys saattaa olla jopa "eugeeninen"